Does Malaysia Economy do well since 2000?

	Malaysia		Population	Indonesia		Population
Year	Value $	GDP %	(Mil)	Value $	GDP %	(Mil)
2000	93,789,736,842.11	8.6		165,021,012,077.81	4.8
2001	92,783,947,368.42	0.3		160,446,947,784.91	3.3
2002	100,845,263,157.90	4.2		195,660,611,165.18	3.5
2003	110,202,368,421.05	5.2		234,772,463,823.81	4.1
2004	124,749,736,842.11	7.1		256,836,875,295.45	4.9
2005	143,534,102,611.50	5.2		285,868,618,224.02	5.6
2006	162,690,965,596.21	5.9		364,570,514,304.85	5.5
2007	193,547,824,063.30	6.3	26.80	432,216,737,774.86	6.3	225.60
2008	230,813,597,937.53	4.6	27.30	510,228,635,279.29	6.1	231.60
2009	202,257,586,267.56	-1.7	27.80	539,580,088,908.14	4.5	235.00
2010	255,016,609,232.87	7.2	28.30	755,094,160,363.07	6.1	238.50
2011	297,951,960,784.31	5.1	29.06	892,969,107,923.09	6.5	242.00
2012	314,442,825,692.83	5.6	29.51	917,869,910,105.75	6.2	245.40
2013	323,276,841,537.34	4.7	30.21	912,524,136,718.02	5.3	248.80
2014	338,068,990,803.26	6.0	30.60	890,814,755,233.23	5.0	252.20
2015	296,283,190,372.55	5.0	31.20	861,256,351,277.36	4.9	255.46
2016	296,359,118,754.53	4.2	31.70	932,259,177,765.31	5.0	258.70
	Thailand		Population	Philipines		Population
Year	Value $	GDP %	(Mil)	Value $	GDP %	(Mil)
2000	126,392,308,497.75	4.1		81,026,297,144.28	3.6
2001	120,296,746,256.63	1.4		76,262,072,022.22	2.8
2002	134,300,851,255.00	5.2		81,357,602,950.18	4.6
2003	152,280,653,543.73	6.7		83,908,206,456.06	4.5
2004	172,895,476,152.59	6.1		91,371,239,764.88	5.9
2005	189,318,499,954.00	4.5		103,071,585,462.60	4.8
2006	221,758,486,880.31	4.8		122,210,719,245.90	5.4
2007	262,942,650,543.77	4.8	63.04	149,359,920,005.89	7.3	88.71
2008	291,383,081,231.82	2.6	63.39	174,195,135,053.12	3.8	90.46
2009	281,710,095,724.76	-2.2	63.53	168,334,599,538.17	1.1	91.02
2010	341,105,009,515.33	7.8	63.88	199,590,774,784.58	7.3	92.60
2011	370,818,747,396.83	0.1	64.08	224,143,083,706.78	3.7	94.80
2012	397,559,992,407.45	6.4	64.06	250,092,093,547.53	6.6	97.10
2013	420,528,737,876.72	2.9	64.46	271,836,123,723.68	6.8	98.00
2014	406,521,561,093.36	0.8	64.79	284,584,522,898.94	6.1	100.50
2015	399,234,547,137.47	2.9	65.12	292,774,099,014.19	6.0	102.20
2016	406,839,679,301.94	3.2	65.93	304,905,406,845.91	6.9	103.90
	Singapore		Population	China		Population
Year	Value $	GDP %	(Mil)	Value $	GDP %	(Mil)
2000	126,923,095,471.91	10.1		1,211,346,395,438.73	8.0
2001	127,212,731,119.31	-2.2		1,339,395,440,432.04
2002	136,256,691,925.27	2.2		1,470,549,716,080.71	8.0
2003	162,766,467,544.72	1.1		1,660,287,543,796.06	8.0
2004	196,053,942,193.91	8.1		1,955,347,477,285.91	9.1
2005	234,022,949,884.06	6.4		2,285,965,854,313.36	9.1
2006	271,974,858,948.52	7.9		2,752,132,089,196.58	10.2
2007	326,343,861,812.68	7.7	4.59	3,552,182,714,426.55	11.9	1321.29
2008	393,489,345,339.15	1.1	4.84	4,598,205,419,718.80	9.0	1328.02
2009	336,886,290,580.52	-1.3	4.99	5,109,954,035,775.98	9.1	1334.50
2010	387,290,741,084.78	14.5	5.08	6,100,620,356,557.32	10.3	1340.91
2011	469,287,734,302.83	4.9	5.18	7,572,554,360,442.62	9.2	1347.35
2012	489,309,844,392.05	1.3	5.31	8,560,546,868,811.69	7.8	1354.04
2013	508,115,793,399.22	4.1	5.40	9,607,224,248,684.59	7.7	1360.72
2014	521,843,492,853.73	3.6	5.47	10,482,371,325,324.70	7.3	1367.82
2015	444,166,579,289.30	1.9	5.54	11,064,664,793,255.70	6.9	1374.62
2016	431,168,068,762.38	1.9	5.60	11,199,145,157,649.20	6.7

*Data get from some internet sources and accuracy not 100%.

1. On average for the past 17 years, Malaysia GDP growth 4.91%, Indonesia 5.15%, Thailand 3.65%, Phillipines 5.13%, Singapore 4.31%, China 8.14%. On economy size Singapore and Thailand are much more larger than Malaysia, and Philippines is slightly larger than Malaysia.

2. Therefore just from economy size point of view, Malaysia actually growth not so well or is below our expectation for the past 17 years. This is due to we use to compare with Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea but now we are actually just nice to compare with Thailand, Phillipines and Vietnam.

3. Another reason which bring Malaysia people feel more down or suffer in their life which we find out is currency - Ringgit Malaysia. Let us have some comparison :

Indonesia Rupiah - poor performance as well compare like year 1997.

 South Korean Won - still perform better compare to year 1997.

 Malaysia Ringgit - poor performance as worst as year 1997.

 Singapore Dollar - well perform until now.

Thai Baht - perform better than 1997 crisis

 Taiwanese Dollar - maintain at current level, stagnant for long time.

 Vietnamese Dong - poor performance as well.

4. USD is the major currency we use even until today, to judge FDI normally we will look at countries foreign reserve. Therefore exchange rate stand as an indicator which show foreign investor either buying or selling your country assets like bond or securities. As a simple conclusion we can get is foreigner actually pull out a lot of investment in Malaysia and Malaysia economy actually not well perform in their point of view. 

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)

China Debt 中国的债务

KUALA LUMPUR: As China’s deleveraging efforts continue to raise concerns that a global slowdown, Malaysia’s growing exposure to the Asian giant makes one wonder just how the local economy stands to be affected.

It appears that, so far, Chinese authorities have been clamping down largely on its privately owned entities, requesting that these companies sell their foreign assets and bring the proceeds back home. This reportedly saw property and entertainment conglomerate Dailan Wanda Group scrap its bid for the US$10 billion (RM43 billion) Bandar Malaysia development project.

However, what may be of a bigger concern is the debt carried by Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to fund their expansions. According to a report by Bloomberg, SOE debt makes up the bulk of non-financial corporate debt, which currently stands at US$17 trillion or some 59% of total outstanding debt of nearly US$29 trillion.

Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani has said that Malaysia’s risks are contained as long as the government continues to deal with these SOEs. However, whether or not that will still apply when the time comes for China to trim its debts remains to be seen.

“If you look at China’s credit tightening, a lot of it will have to be done with SOEs because that is where a significant portion of its debt lies,” said Socio-Economic Research Centre (SERC) executive director Lee Heng Guie.

“[That means that] these firms are likely to be much more careful with their assessments of new investments going forward, even though they will probably uphold existing commitments,” Lee told The Edge Financial Daily.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has said that the lowering SOE debt should be made “the priority of priorities”, but most market watchers are hopeful that the world’s second-largest economy will deleverage prudently and be mindful of the domino effect its decisions will have.

“We are not convinced that the rhetoric regarding deleveraging will translate into an actual fall in debt,” said Christian de Guzman, vice-president and senior analyst of sovereign risk at Moody’s Investor Services.

“As such, we think that China can sustain [a] relatively healthy growth of over 6% over the next few years, which should be supportive of demand for Malaysia’s exports, inward flows of Chinese investment, and commodity prices in general,” he told The Edge Financial Daily in an email response.

In any case, a reform of SOEs appears to be a distant goal with no distinct solution yet, since China has no clear-cut way of “credibly disciplining its elder sons”, Deloitte China chief economist Stephen Xu Sitao said.

“The question to ask is whether or not the Chinese government can make budget constraints binding on SOEs,” Xu said at a conference on China’s banking and financial sector last week.

“And while the Chinese are good at making small things big, they are not good at making big things small. How do you consolidate such large SOEs?” he said.

The unlikelihood of the Chinese state rushing to curb the spending of its SOEs has led most experts to conclude that it would not pull back from the multibillion dollar investments it has promised to pump into its Belt and Road Initiative.

“If investments are sanctioned by the [Chinese] state, they will probably be given some leeway when it comes to tightening,” said Dr Yeah Kim Leng, economics professor at the Sunway University Business School.

Where Yeah expects to see tightening in China instead is on the supply side of raw materials such as coal, steel and cement, and zombie companies that have been supported by the Chinese government’s earlier willingness to provide cheap credit.

Meanwhile, Malaysia has been actively courting China’s SOEs for its infrastructure projects, including the RM55 billion East Coast Rail Link for which it signed a memorandum of understanding with China Communications Construction Company (CCCC), the republic’s largest construction outfit. Most recently, the light rail vehicle work package for light rail transit 3 has been awarded to a consortium led by CRRC Zhuzhou Locomotive Co Ltd.

Also worth mentioning is that out of the nine bids for the Bandar Malaysia project, seven have come from Chinese state-controlled companies, with the remaining two from Japanese developers. Putrajaya, in an announcement last month, said the bids are valued between US$7 billion and US$10.5 billion.

Separately, Chinese SOEs are also participating in the development of ports and industrial parks in Melaka and Kuantan, and the Four Seasons Hotel and the Tun Razak Exchange (TRX) Signature Tower here.

Although existing government-backed commitments and projects may remain unaffected for now, private companies that are deemed to be lacking synergies with China’s overall expansion strategy could see further curbs on their overseas expansions, SERC’s Lee said.

“These investments may be put on hold if [the Chinese government] considers the capital outflows too big and unnecessary,” he added.

China has, for example, been taking measures to cool its property market, noted RHB Asset Management chief investment officer, Mohd Fauzi Mohd Tahir.

Speaking to reporters after the asset management arm’s market insight forum last week, Mohd Fauzi concurred that this had translated into a slight slowdown in demand for properties in Malaysia built by Chinese developers, such as Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd’s US$100 billion (RM428 billion) Forest City in Iskandar Malaysia, Johor.

In April, it was reported that Country Garden assured mainland investors that it would refund them following Beijing’s crackdown on capital outflows.

According to a report by Nomura last week, it is possible that China’s highly indebted corporate sector would refrain from investing overseas until its deleveraging is complete.

But while China has been cracking down on the foreign assets of some of its biggest privately owned enterprises, it also saw the launch of 52 state-owned investment firms in 21 of its provinces last week, which will be investing state funds at the provincial and city levels, Reuters reported.

Beijing, however, has given an assurance that it will take steps to keep the deleveraging process smooth and orderly, the wire service quoted the People’s Bank of China assistant governor Zhang Xiaohui as saying.

But whether or not China can fulfil its promises remains to be seen.

个人评语：

1. 根据图表中国的总债务是US$29 Trillion (美元 27万亿), 主要债务集中在国有企业占全国总债务59% 或 US$17 Trillion (美元 17万亿)。中国政府现有外汇储备是US$3 Trillion (美元 3万亿)。中国国内生产总值(GDP)大约US$11 Trillion (美元 11万亿)。

2.中国的债务大吗？这样的债务对中国这个大国来说是警讯？这样的债务中国控制的到吗？

大，这是因为债务总数已经超过国内生产总值，是警讯。所以，我们可以看到中国政府最近非常积极的在减低与控制私人界的债务。国有企业的债务也在不断减低，控制与重组。可是，这样的债务还是在控制范围以内这是因为中国的经济体还在持续的成长。就算是每年只有6.7%的国内生产总值成长(GDP growth)对世界第二大的经济体来说这个数目还是相当大的。(大约每一年可以有0.7万亿左右的经济成长或相等于两倍马来西亚的GDP)

3.中国现有的优势有：

一，较高的储蓄率大约占45%的国内生产总值GDP(美元5万亿)。

二，根据McKinsey & Company 的报告中国于2020年，城市人口将有76%迈入中等收入，相等于五亿五千万的人口年收入介于US$9000 - US$34,00。这五亿的人口相等于1.7倍美国人口的总数。

三，深圳与上海的股市总价值亿达到US$6.6 Trillion(美元 6.6万亿)，这还没有加上香港的股市总值。中国持续的开放也让这个成功让中国A股被纳入MSCI新兴市场指数。

4.现阶段，我们认为中国的经济不会出现大问题。根据我们掌握的资料，中国还是一个可持续成长的国家。我们会密切关注局势的发展然后再与大家分享。

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)

美元熊市，会发生吗？

预计，几率超过50%

外劳

1.这是一份记录表：

不久前我们听说过，曾经有人做过研究要提升马来西亚的GDP只要持续引进外劳就能提高一定的百分比。这代表这一批外劳大军所带来的生产能力与消费能力绝对是我国政府不能忽视的。官方统计我国合法与非法的外劳大约有六百万人口是我国内第三大族群。

2.外劳带来的利与弊

利：外劳解决了人工短缺的问题。外劳的成本比较低。外劳对当地的饮食带来了强大需求。
弊：外劳无法带来工业的进步。外劳带来很多社会问题。过度依赖外劳无法带来技术上的突破

外劳不是不好但是我国已经变成过度依赖外劳的劳动力所带来的生产力，长远来看并不是一件好事。这是因为外劳无法带来技术的提升而我们的工业也只能一直停留在低端制造无法迈向高科技的道路。

3.移民与外劳的分别

一个国家如果想变得要强大借助外来移民的能力是绝对有必要的。移民带来的技术，知识，经验，创造新财富的能力，以及人口的增加，这些力量能够让一个国家变的更强大。然而这些都是外劳无法给予的，过量的外劳会带来一定的社会问题，长远来看短期的利益需要牺牲很多长远的利益。

4.我国的政策

Malaysia My Second Home - 这个政策很大程度上注定是失败，朝令夕改的政策以及不友善的服务绝对无法达到目的。

我们认为与其鼓励外国人移民到马来西亚，倒不如强力鼓励流浪在外的马来西亚人才回国帮助发展马来西亚。帮助他们创业，帮助他们建立家庭，帮助他们把技术与知识带回马来西亚这样我们才能够变的更强大。好的政府需要包容，需要人才，需要长远计划，需要不怕困难。心念一转迈向高收入国对我国何尝是一种阻碍。

借“创业之国以色列 ( The Story of Israel's Economic Miracle - Dan Senor & Saul Singer)” 这本书的一段话来分享给大家 ：page 258-259

提供价格廉价的方法来做生意，借此吸引新成员加入群聚，或许很有用，但却维持不久。如果价格是群聚唯一的竞争优势，总是会有其他国家用更低廉的价格来瓜分市场。真正能够维持成长的因素，在于群聚的特质，例如一个紧密结合的社群，所有成员都一定会生活在这个群聚内，成家立业。一个群聚的关键就是大家有共同的信念和命运，这比日复一日的商业竞争还有重要，而这种感觉是不容易制作出来的。

从这个角度来说，杜拜面临的障碍很难跨越。不管是来至欧洲及波斯湾地区的商业冒险家，或是南亚及阿拉伯的临时劳工，这些外国居民都只是来这里赚钱的，仅此而已。一旦钱赚到了，他们就会回家，或者继续下一趟冒险旅程。他们和杜拜之间是一种交易关系，不是来这里共组紧密结合的社会，也不是一起来这里扎根打拼或者建立什么新东西。他们是用家乡的社群做比较标准，来衡量自己的地位与成就，而不是用杜拜的标准；他们的情感依靠和在地感存在于别处。我们认为这对于要形成完全运作的群聚，是很基本的障碍，可能对于培养高成长率的企业经济也会形成障碍。

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)

股市会崩盘吗？

1.美国的股市都在历史新高为什么不会崩盘？

美国最近的经济成长的很好就连联储局为了压制通膨还在不断的起利息，这是经济转好的现象而且预计还会持续成长。Nasdaq方面主要的指数股像是Google, Apple, 业务都已经全球化所以随着全球经济的持续反弹后期还是看好。在这里我们担心的只有过度的乐观以及估值过高的公司会有大调整，但是时机还不清楚。美国已经起了6-7千点，大调整是正常的而且也绝对会短暂性影响全世界股市的走势。

2.马来西亚的股市还可以买进吗？
马来西亚股市可以买进但是要选股。马股主要支撑的理由有即将举行大选，第一季度经济强力反弹GDP成长5.6%，主要指数成分股的PE还不算太高。主要要避开的股有PE过高或者超过25以上的公司以及不赚钱的公司。

3.接下来马来西亚股市要注意什么？
不要为了追短暂利益的股而带来太大的损失，cut loss 绝对很重要。下一个季度的GDP也很重要如果跌下来的话，预计公司盈利也会跌，股价也会跌。大选之前建议卖票这是很多人的想法所以你只可以比人更早卖票又或者走相反路线这都要看当时的情况。就让大家先来个心里准备吧！！

4.最近主要买进的股有 3379 Insas, 短期买卖 4324 Hengyuan, 4715 Genm.

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)

中国A股被纳入MSCI新兴市场指数

明年，中国A股将被纳入MSCI新兴市场指数和MSCI ACWI全球指数。初始加入A股的222支大盘股，基于5%的纳入因子，在明年8月的评审完成后，这些加入的A股将约占MSCI新兴市场指数0.73%的权重。

MSCI拟在2018年5月和8月分两步实施初始纳入计划。若在此之前，沪股通和深股通的每日额度被取消或者大幅度提高，MSCI 不排除将此纳入计划修改为一次性实施的方案。

海外经验：60%以上的国家1个月后股市上涨

民生证券的统计显示，纳入MSCI新兴市场指数的国家，有60%以上1个月后股市出现上涨，61.5%的国家股市在一年后股市上涨幅度超过10%。

但纳入MSCI指数并不会改变原有市场的趋势。以韩国股市为例，在1992年纳入MSCI新兴市场指数后的6个月内，KOSPI指数下跌17%：1992-1993年期间，韩国GDP增速从10%下滑至4%，经济基本面恶化，股市整体呈下跌趋势。

Source : 可能纳入MSCI的222只大盘股都有谁？

Source : 10个数字看懂A股纳入MSCI全景图