Bank Mandiri - Good Long Term Holding shares listed at Indonesia

Information : http://ir.bankmandiri.co.id/phoenix.zhtml?c=146157&p=irol-IRHome

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)

Global House Price Index for Q2 2017 by Knight Frank

After Bank Indonesia, Who's Got Most Room to Ease?

India has the most room for easing among emerging Asian nations after Bank Indonesia’s surprise decision to lower its benchmark rate.

Just take a look at inflation-adjusted policy rates of emerging Asian countries. India, which lowered rates this month, has the most scope to cut interest rates further, followed by Thailand. After Wednesday’s move, Indonesia’s has fallen to less than 1 percent. More easing could be good news for Asia’s bond markets. Excluding China and the Philippines, they have lured a net $11.6 billion this quarter, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“Investors like India’s high yield and growth potential, so a rate cut won’t be so negative in terms of fund flows,” said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer at FPG Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Thailand’s real yield looks to be high but the nation’s absolute yield and inflation are both too low, so all in all, India looks more attractive.”

— With assistance by Yumi Teso

Source : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-23/after-bank-indonesia-who-s-got-most-room-to-ease

八月的展望

1.现在已经是八月份了，市场并没发生所谓的五穷六绝七翻身。这样的报道每年都会有，我们认为明年的报纸还是会老调重提所以切记关注世界与国家的经济走势比较重要。我们也发现一旦进入八月份后，投资者都会把这些忘干净。

2.今年主要的经济数据就是全球的经济开始反弹，世界银行也调高了各国的GDP成长预测。美国联储局为了应付经济不断的升温不得不开始加利息来应付通膨。美国股市也在大选过后开始大起，DJIA大概起了4000点Nasdaq起了1500点，现在都处于历史新高。所以，你可以发现政治因数对一个国家的走势绝对重要。

3.亚洲国家的股市今年开始也都强力反弹，现在大多数都处于最近的新高点，除了马来西亚。马股力道不够这里只有一个原因投资者不喜欢不确定性（uncertainty），马股的长期走势要等到大选过后才能看到现在能看到的只有短期的投机机会。

3.马股昨天经历了短暂性的大套利后许多股都开始低价反弹，这里我们可以学到的是马股每一次大跌都是买低的机会，可以赚点快钱（当然心里素质需要建立好-不要怕）。这一波的套利价跌量升所以我们认为有一部分的投资者应该已经开始离场。

4.接下来，大家最担心的就是全球股市会不会金融风暴？十年一次的金融风暴会不会发生？现阶段的我们认为还不会，不过股市应该会有大调整这是因为美国的股市有点过度乐观估值过高的股会有大调整。如果美国股市开始大调整，信心会动摇这也会影响到亚洲国家的股市走势。但是这不代表经济会崩盘，我们已排除中国经济会崩盘的因数因为中国政府最近都在积极控制贷款以及企业的借贷，除非世界发生战争-打战那股市就会崩盘。

5.现在要如何选股票以及什么行业会起？

-公司不赚钱不看，PE超过25不看，产业股不看，种植股也暂时不看。

-出口领域的股会轮流炒因为马来西亚的出口数据还是很好再加上马币也起不上，以下几个领域会轮流炒那个领域会先来就要注意市场每天的走势：

• 电子(Semiconductor) 可以注意的公司- DUFU, ELSOFT, FRONTKN, MIKROMB, MPI, PENTA, SOLUTION 

• 家具(furniture)  可以注意的公司 - EVERGRN, FLBHD, HEVEA, HOMERIZ, JAYCORP, LIIHEN, MIECO, POHUAT

• 手套(glove)  可以注意的公司 - TOPGLOVE, COMFORT, SUPERMX, KAREX

• IOT (Internet of things)的股会来炒但是要注意估值过高和输钱的都不要买如果你不会cut loss. 可以注意的公司 - ECS, GPACKET, HTPADU, OPENSYS

• 最新季度开始赚钱的IOT股 - TDEX (1Q17 RM447K), SYSTECH ( 2017年RM2.702M), MNC (1Q17 RM192K), KRONO (C2Q17 RM4.076M), IFCAMSC (1Q17 RM1.673M), EFORCE (1Q17 RM1.657M)

• 有消息的IOT股 - Mpay (亏钱）, REV (1Q17 赚RM8.002M)

* 1Q17 = 1st Quarter result (一个季度), C2Q17 = Cumulative 2 Quarter result (连续两个季度), K = 000 (千), M = Million (百万)

7.今天大起的另一个行业是钢铁股和铝业。9/8/17 中国的钢铁股涨停板，美国的钢铁股也大起，铝价USD2000。

• 可以注意的铁股(Steel Company) - ANNJOO (PE 7.10), ARANK (PE 7.17), ATTA (PE 20.83), AYS (PE 7.58), CHOOBEE (PE 6.68), CSCTEEL (PE 8.52), EMETALL (PE 18.07), FACBIND (PE 11.90), HIAPTEK (PE 11.50), KSSC (PE 9.65), MASTEEL (PE 9.01), MYCRON (PE 6.25), PRESTAR (PE 8.38)

• 可以注意的铝业(Aluminium Company) - ALCOM (PE21.03), LBALUM (PE 10.58), PMETAL (PE 22.38), PMBTECH (PE 16.79)

*PE - Price Earning Ratio (本益比）简单的说法就是需要多少年来赚回你现在投资进去的钱。1代表1年，数目越大越不好代表需要越长的时间。最基本的标准可以设在15倍因为马来西亚整个股市差不多在17倍。

8.另一个会轮回的行业是建筑 ，建筑股得到的合约往往很大可是利润很低可能只有3%。可以注意的公司 - EKOVEST (PE14.89), GADANG (PE 8.17), GKENT (PE 16), IJM (PE16.27), KERJAYA (PE 20.36) KIMLUN (PE8.94), FAJAR (PE 10.49), MITRA (PE 7.65), PRTASCO (PE 7.91), TRC (PE 11.80), SUNCON (PE 22.59), GAMUDA (PE 19.87), AZRB (PE 23.65),

9.接下来是最近一年注意到的大跌股 ：

TUNEPRO RM1.02 跌40% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价）RM1.70 -RM1.02 

OWG RM1.24 跌 51% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价）RM2.54 - RM1.24 

MALTON RM0.975 跌49% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价）RM1.94 - RM0.595

SEM RM1.40 跌 29% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价）RM1.97 - RM1.12

UMWOG RM0.29 跌73% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价）RM1.04 - RM0.28

DNEX RM0.495 跌 28% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价）RM0.69 - RM0.205

TEKSENG RM0.535 跌62% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价）RM1.43 - RM0.505

*跌的%是用最高价和09/08/17的闭市价做比较

10. 可以注意的指数股 - GENM, CIMB, Maybank, MISC, Tenaga

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)

Does Malaysia Economy do well since 2000?

	Malaysia		Population	Indonesia		Population
Year	Value $	GDP %	(Mil)	Value $	GDP %	(Mil)
2000	93,789,736,842.11	8.6		165,021,012,077.81	4.8
2001	92,783,947,368.42	0.3		160,446,947,784.91	3.3
2002	100,845,263,157.90	4.2		195,660,611,165.18	3.5
2003	110,202,368,421.05	5.2		234,772,463,823.81	4.1
2004	124,749,736,842.11	7.1		256,836,875,295.45	4.9
2005	143,534,102,611.50	5.2		285,868,618,224.02	5.6
2006	162,690,965,596.21	5.9		364,570,514,304.85	5.5
2007	193,547,824,063.30	6.3	26.80	432,216,737,774.86	6.3	225.60
2008	230,813,597,937.53	4.6	27.30	510,228,635,279.29	6.1	231.60
2009	202,257,586,267.56	-1.7	27.80	539,580,088,908.14	4.5	235.00
2010	255,016,609,232.87	7.2	28.30	755,094,160,363.07	6.1	238.50
2011	297,951,960,784.31	5.1	29.06	892,969,107,923.09	6.5	242.00
2012	314,442,825,692.83	5.6	29.51	917,869,910,105.75	6.2	245.40
2013	323,276,841,537.34	4.7	30.21	912,524,136,718.02	5.3	248.80
2014	338,068,990,803.26	6.0	30.60	890,814,755,233.23	5.0	252.20
2015	296,283,190,372.55	5.0	31.20	861,256,351,277.36	4.9	255.46
2016	296,359,118,754.53	4.2	31.70	932,259,177,765.31	5.0	258.70
	Thailand		Population	Philipines		Population
Year	Value $	GDP %	(Mil)	Value $	GDP %	(Mil)
2000	126,392,308,497.75	4.1		81,026,297,144.28	3.6
2001	120,296,746,256.63	1.4		76,262,072,022.22	2.8
2002	134,300,851,255.00	5.2		81,357,602,950.18	4.6
2003	152,280,653,543.73	6.7		83,908,206,456.06	4.5
2004	172,895,476,152.59	6.1		91,371,239,764.88	5.9
2005	189,318,499,954.00	4.5		103,071,585,462.60	4.8
2006	221,758,486,880.31	4.8		122,210,719,245.90	5.4
2007	262,942,650,543.77	4.8	63.04	149,359,920,005.89	7.3	88.71
2008	291,383,081,231.82	2.6	63.39	174,195,135,053.12	3.8	90.46
2009	281,710,095,724.76	-2.2	63.53	168,334,599,538.17	1.1	91.02
2010	341,105,009,515.33	7.8	63.88	199,590,774,784.58	7.3	92.60
2011	370,818,747,396.83	0.1	64.08	224,143,083,706.78	3.7	94.80
2012	397,559,992,407.45	6.4	64.06	250,092,093,547.53	6.6	97.10
2013	420,528,737,876.72	2.9	64.46	271,836,123,723.68	6.8	98.00
2014	406,521,561,093.36	0.8	64.79	284,584,522,898.94	6.1	100.50
2015	399,234,547,137.47	2.9	65.12	292,774,099,014.19	6.0	102.20
2016	406,839,679,301.94	3.2	65.93	304,905,406,845.91	6.9	103.90
	Singapore		Population	China		Population
Year	Value $	GDP %	(Mil)	Value $	GDP %	(Mil)
2000	126,923,095,471.91	10.1		1,211,346,395,438.73	8.0
2001	127,212,731,119.31	-2.2		1,339,395,440,432.04
2002	136,256,691,925.27	2.2		1,470,549,716,080.71	8.0
2003	162,766,467,544.72	1.1		1,660,287,543,796.06	8.0
2004	196,053,942,193.91	8.1		1,955,347,477,285.91	9.1
2005	234,022,949,884.06	6.4		2,285,965,854,313.36	9.1
2006	271,974,858,948.52	7.9		2,752,132,089,196.58	10.2
2007	326,343,861,812.68	7.7	4.59	3,552,182,714,426.55	11.9	1321.29
2008	393,489,345,339.15	1.1	4.84	4,598,205,419,718.80	9.0	1328.02
2009	336,886,290,580.52	-1.3	4.99	5,109,954,035,775.98	9.1	1334.50
2010	387,290,741,084.78	14.5	5.08	6,100,620,356,557.32	10.3	1340.91
2011	469,287,734,302.83	4.9	5.18	7,572,554,360,442.62	9.2	1347.35
2012	489,309,844,392.05	1.3	5.31	8,560,546,868,811.69	7.8	1354.04
2013	508,115,793,399.22	4.1	5.40	9,607,224,248,684.59	7.7	1360.72
2014	521,843,492,853.73	3.6	5.47	10,482,371,325,324.70	7.3	1367.82
2015	444,166,579,289.30	1.9	5.54	11,064,664,793,255.70	6.9	1374.62
2016	431,168,068,762.38	1.9	5.60	11,199,145,157,649.20	6.7

*Data get from some internet sources and accuracy not 100%.

1. On average for the past 17 years, Malaysia GDP growth 4.91%, Indonesia 5.15%, Thailand 3.65%, Phillipines 5.13%, Singapore 4.31%, China 8.14%. On economy size Singapore and Thailand are much more larger than Malaysia, and Philippines is slightly larger than Malaysia.

2. Therefore just from economy size point of view, Malaysia actually growth not so well or is below our expectation for the past 17 years. This is due to we use to compare with Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea but now we are actually just nice to compare with Thailand, Phillipines and Vietnam.

3. Another reason which bring Malaysia people feel more down or suffer in their life which we find out is currency - Ringgit Malaysia. Let us have some comparison :

Indonesia Rupiah - poor performance as well compare like year 1997.

 South Korean Won - still perform better compare to year 1997.

 Malaysia Ringgit - poor performance as worst as year 1997.

 Singapore Dollar - well perform until now.

Thai Baht - perform better than 1997 crisis

 Taiwanese Dollar - maintain at current level, stagnant for long time.

 Vietnamese Dong - poor performance as well.

4. USD is the major currency we use even until today, to judge FDI normally we will look at countries foreign reserve. Therefore exchange rate stand as an indicator which show foreign investor either buying or selling your country assets like bond or securities. As a simple conclusion we can get is foreigner actually pull out a lot of investment in Malaysia and Malaysia economy actually not well perform in their point of view. 

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)