Monday, April 23, 2018

The largest technology company in Russia call Yandex

Russia also officially known as the Russian Federation, is a sovereign country in Eurasia. At 17,125,200 square kilometres (6,612,100 sq mi), Russia is the largest country in the world by area, covering more than one-eighth of the Earth's inhabited land area, and the ninth most populous, with over 144 million people at the end of December 2017. About 77% of the population live in the western, European part of the country. Russia's capital Moscow is one of the largest cities in the world; other major urban centers include Saint Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg and Nizhny Novgorod. (Information from wikipedia)

Yandex N.V. is a multinational corporation specializing in Internet-related services and products. Although most of its assets are in Russia, the company is incorporated in the Netherlands due to irregularities in Russian law. It is the largest technology company in Russia and the largest search engine on the Internet in Russian, with a market share of over 52%. The Yandex.ru home page is the 4th most popular website in Russia. It also has the largest market share of any search engine in the Commonwealth of Independent States and is the 5th largest search engine worldwide after Google, Baidu, Bing, and Yahoo!. (Information from wikipedia)




Yandex (YNDX) listed at Nasdaq with market cap US$11 billion. Below is the chart for Yandex shares price from 2017.


Yandex doesn’t just operate in the search engine space. The company has an email service and a cloud storage product. It has also launched a voice-enabled digital assistant called Alice. Yandex also has a ride-hailing and food delivery business. And in March, it formed a joint venture with Uber (valued at more than US$3.8 billion) to combine their ride-hailing and food delivery businesses in Russia. 

Yandex has also developed a self-driving car (which it’s already testing in Russia). It also recently signed a deal with Russian state-run bank Sberbank to create a joint e-commerce venture. And it has introduced a new feature for online shopping in around 76,000 global stores and services that give customers the option of paying for purchases in installments. (Information from Stansberrychurchhouse)

FY 2017 Financial Highlights
  • Revenues of RUB 94.1 billion ($1,632.9 million), up 24% compared with FY 2016
  • Net income of RUB 8.7 billion ($150.3 million), up 28% compared with FY 2016; net income margin of 9.2%
  • Adjusted net income of RUB 15.4 billion ($266.6 million), up 9% compared with FY 2016; adjusted net income margin of 16.3%
  • Adjusted EBITDA of RUB 29.1 billion ($504.8 million), up 11% compared with FY 2016; adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.9%

Q4 2017 Operational and Corporate Highlights
  • Share of Russian search market, including mobile, averaged 56.5% in Q4 2017, compared with 54.9% in Q3 2017, and reached 56.7% in December 2017, according to Yandex.Radar
  • Search share on Android in Russia was 45.0% in Q4 2017, compared with 41.2% in Q3 2017 and 37.0% in Q4 2016
  • Search queries in Russia grew 9% compared with Q4 2016
  • Paid clicks on Yandex's and its partners' websites, in aggregate, increased 10% compared with Q4 2016
  • Average cost per click grew 9% compared with Q4 2016
  • Yandex.Taxi number of rides grew 250% year-on-year compared with Q4 2016
  • Yandex launched Alice - the first conversational intelligent assistant designed for the Russian market
  • The Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Russian Federation approved the combination of Yandex.Taxi and Uber ride-sharing businesses
  • Yandex and Sberbank signed a binding agreement to form a joint venture based on the Yandex.Market platform

Q4 2017 Subsequent Events
  • Yandex created Media Services (KinoPoisk, Yandex.Music, Yandex.Afisha and Yandex.TV program) business unit
  • On February 7, 2018, Yandex completed the transaction between Yandex.Taxi and Uber in Russia and neighbouring countries

(Information from 4th Quarter financial results)


以上纯属个人分析与评论,如有任何疑问,欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。
From:林友志 (Lim Yu Chee)

Sunday, April 15, 2018

光大证券 石油美元 - 国际资本市场上的巨大力量

布雷顿森林体系瓦解后,美国和当时最大的石油出口国沙特阿拉伯签订了石油交易协议,规定石油以美元标价,美国则以其他方式协助沙特。这使得美元开始成了大部分石油交易的货币,美元在国际货币体系中的地位得以维护。由于石油是任何一个国家现代经济发展必不可少的能源和基础化工资源,石油进口国为了获取石油,必须先兑换美元,持有美元储备,于是美国就以控制着石油交易的方式巩固着美元在国际货币体系中的地位,石油美元也通过其他投资模式进入到全球金融市场,并回流到美国,成为国际资本市场上一股巨大的力量。
石油欧元——受制于美国霸权主义
就原油消费量以及全球政治与经济影响力来讲,欧元是最有能力取代美元作为石油计价货币的。然而,由于欧元和美元在国际货币市场上的竞争十分激烈,一旦市场上出现以欧元计价体系出现的举动时,美国往往利用各种手段和形式从中阻挠,以维护美元全球货币中心地位。因此,在美国利用自己强大的经济和军事实力,牢牢控制着 OPEC 和国际石油体系的大环境下,石油欧元对于石油美元的挑战短期内难以实现。
石油卢布——原油依赖型经济带来的石油-卢布困境
俄罗斯是全球最重要的原油生产国与出口国之一,卢布已具备成为石油计价货币的基本条件。然而,由于俄罗斯经济发展以及对外贸易过于依赖原油这一大宗商品,卢布的汇率和原油价格呈明显的一致性,这使得卢布稳定值大大降低,不利于投资和生产。一旦原油价格大跌,俄罗斯的经济将会迅速恶化,形成石油-卢布困境。
石油人民币——原油期货助力,打造三方“互惠循环”
2018 年 3 月 26 日,中国原油期货(INE)正式在上海能源中心挂牌上市,意味着国际原油市场开始有了中国原油价格基准,同时也代表我国石油人民币计价体系的正式建立。INE 合约有两个特别的安排:以中质含硫原油作为交割标的;期货合约以人民币计价,可转换成黄金。此举能直接避免 INE 与 WTI、Brent 的竞争,从而防范美国制裁;同时消除了人民国际化程度不足的风险,对原油出口国产生巨大吸引力。
若人民币在石油贸易计价体系上取得突破,将在以下几个方面带来有利条件:1)提高我国在原油贸易市场上的话语权,减少“亚洲溢价”,降低国际油价波动对我国石油行业、企业造成的冲击。2)助推人民币国际化进程。根据美元的经验,石油现货贸易采取人民币计价有助于维系本币在国际市场的使用价值和储备价值,两者互助互利、相互支撑。3)以“一带一路”沿线经济发展的内生需求为动力,以人民币的货币信用为支撑,打造中国、沿线经济体和石油出口国的三方互惠循环。
风险分析:中国经济转型、美国经济复苏带来中国原油市场影响力降低风险;美元走强,人民币国际化进程不及预期带来石油人民币推广风险。

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Still looking good at HK AIA

1. For the pass five years company business, profit, Shareholder equity, dividend all growing well.

2. The business contribution by country.

3.Wait to buy cheap for this counter.


以上纯属个人分析与评论,如有任何疑问,欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。
From:林友志 (Lim Yu Chee)

March Review

This is the first update since 2018, Malaysia market start with a bullish month in January however the power retreat very fast since early February. DJIA has the largest single day dropping at 2 Feb for 665 points. Review back we have a sharp pull back since that time and market sentiment change to become very weak.

1. DJIA - The index almost drop 11% from the highest and testing the psychology level 200 days average. This is a long waiting adjustment since year 2017, we foresee this is a healthy adjustment and may lead DJIA to go back higher again. However this adjustment still not yet complete and we are still monitoring the progress, mostly it may break the 200 days average and start consolidate.


2. S&P 500 - The index move in tandem like DJIA.


3. FBMKLCI - The only reason index remain so strong is because of election. However if you looking at share price which excluded the index counters most fall at least 20-30%.


4. Property counters very attractive now, after three years drop we may have this sector rebound after election? The ower the P/TBV mean the stock is undervalue.


5. Some counters fall below their NTA ( price as at 23 Mar 2018)
  • CSCSTEL RM1.40,  NTA RM2.22,  PE 8.96,    EPS 16.20
  • KERJAYA RM1.53,  NTA RM1.55,  PE 14.81,  EPS 23.32
  • IQGROUP RM1.41,  NTA RM1.74,  PE 16.51,  EPS 8.54
  • PERSTIM RM3.56,  NTA RM3.77,   PE 13.65,  EPS 25.87
  • BPPLAS   RM0.88,  NTA RM0.89,   PE 13.09,   EPS 6.83
  • JAYCORP RM1.20,  NTA RM1.15,  PE 6.20,  EPS 18.36
  • TGUAN    RM2.79,  NTA RM3.47,  PE 8.82,  EPS 34.87
  • MUHIBAH RM3.00,  NTA RM2.18,  PE 7.42,  EPS 27.40
以上纯属个人分析与评论,如有任何疑问,欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。
From:林友志 (Lim Yu Chee)

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

World Index Review For November.

1. FBMKLCI - break 200 days moving average technically in down turn territory. Strong support 1727 break, next support 1692, 1669. Uncertainty and political risk force foreign investor keep on selling Malaysia equities.


Short term view - KLCI almost continuous drop for 7 seven days, chances to test 8 days and the longest is 14 days for recent record.


2. Hang Seng Index - bullish uptrend continue, no signal of reverse. Technically strong support is 26090 which mean a 10% room of adjustment. However we didn't see any sign of adjustment coming in yet. Currently index still stay above 50, 100, and 200 days moving average. 2017 is a good year for Hang Seng since beginning of the year the index has been up around 7000 over points until now.


Short term view - Only two days small adjustment, waiting for big adjustment to come.


3. Strait Times - Singapore also same like Hang Seng maintain at bullish trend. Strong support at 3275 and 3200. STI index since beginning of the year has been up around 500 over points until now. From economic points of view, Singapore's economic recovery is gathering pace due in part to a sustained increase in global electronics demand.


4.  DJIA - US Dow Jones super bullish run for 2017, the index has been up 4000 over points until now. Strong support at 21563 and 21197. Strong recovery from US economy has helped to sustain the growth of DJIA until now. DJIA still continue maintain at uptrend territory as the 50 and 100 days moving average not yet broken.


Short term view - Small downward only.


5. S&P 500 - Bullish trend, strong support are 2454 and 2406.



6. Nasdaq - Technology companies enjoy a super bullish year in 2017 as the demand for new technology products and application of new technology have helped to push the business of the world super IT brand companies and their supply chain related companies.


** Index is just a guide for overall market performance, counters movement might not be affected by index. However index still a guide for us when we see market, therefore to have a clearer picture you can zoom in to industry index for a better guide.

以上纯属个人分析与评论,如有任何疑问,欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。
From:林友志 (Lim Yu Chee)

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Bank Mandiri - Good Long Term Holding shares listed at Indonesia


Information : http://ir.bankmandiri.co.id/phoenix.zhtml?c=146157&p=irol-IRHome

以上纯属个人分析与评论,如有任何疑问,欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。
From:林友志 (Lim Yu Chee)

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

After Bank Indonesia, Who's Got Most Room to Ease?

India has the most room for easing among emerging Asian nations after Bank Indonesia’s surprise decision to lower its benchmark rate.

Just take a look at inflation-adjusted policy rates of emerging Asian countries. India, which lowered rates this month, has the most scope to cut interest rates further, followed by Thailand. After Wednesday’s move, Indonesia’s has fallen to less than 1 percent. More easing could be good news for Asia’s bond markets. Excluding China and the Philippines, they have lured a net $11.6 billion this quarter, data compiled by Bloomberg show.


“Investors like India’s high yield and growth potential, so a rate cut won’t be so negative in terms of fund flows,” said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer at FPG Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Thailand’s real yield looks to be high but the nation’s absolute yield and inflation are both too low, so all in all, India looks more attractive.”

— With assistance by Yumi Teso

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

八月的展望

1.现在已经是八月份了,市场并没发生所谓的五穷六绝七翻身。这样的报道每年都会有,我们认为明年的报纸还是会老调重提所以切记关注世界与国家的经济走势比较重要。我们也发现一旦进入八月份后,投资者都会把这些忘干净。

2.今年主要的经济数据就是全球的经济开始反弹,世界银行也调高了各国的GDP成长预测。美国联储局为了应付经济不断的升温不得不开始加利息来应付通膨。美国股市也在大选过后开始大起,DJIA大概起了4000点Nasdaq起了1500点,现在都处于历史新高。所以,你可以发现政治因数对一个国家的走势绝对重要。

3.亚洲国家的股市今年开始也都强力反弹,现在大多数都处于最近的新高点,除了马来西亚。马股力道不够这里只有一个原因投资者不喜欢不确定性(uncertainty),马股的长期走势要等到大选过后才能看到现在能看到的只有短期的投机机会。

3.马股昨天经历了短暂性的大套利后许多股都开始低价反弹,这里我们可以学到的是马股每一次大跌都是买低的机会,可以赚点快钱(当然心里素质需要建立好-不要怕)。这一波的套利价跌量升所以我们认为有一部分的投资者应该已经开始离场。

4.接下来,大家最担心的就是全球股市会不会金融风暴?十年一次的金融风暴会不会发生?现阶段的我们认为还不会,不过股市应该会有大调整这是因为美国的股市有点过度乐观估值过高的股会有大调整。如果美国股市开始大调整,信心会动摇这也会影响到亚洲国家的股市走势。但是这不代表经济会崩盘,我们已排除中国经济会崩盘的因数因为中国政府最近都在积极控制贷款以及企业的借贷,除非世界发生战争-打战那股市就会崩盘。

5.现在要如何选股票以及什么行业会起?

-公司不赚钱不看,PE超过25不看,产业股不看,种植股也暂时不看。

-出口领域的股会轮流炒因为马来西亚的出口数据还是很好再加上马币也起不上,以下几个领域会轮流炒那个领域会先来就要注意市场每天的走势:

  • 电子(Semiconductor) 可以注意的公司- DUFU, ELSOFT, FRONTKN, MIKROMB, MPI, PENTA, SOLUTION 
  • 家具(furniture)  可以注意的公司 - EVERGRN, FLBHD, HEVEA, HOMERIZ, JAYCORP, LIIHEN, MIECO, POHUAT
  • 手套(glove)  可以注意的公司 - TOPGLOVE, COMFORT, SUPERMX, KAREX
  • IOT (Internet of things)的股会来炒但是要注意估值过高和输钱的都不要买如果你不会cut loss. 可以注意的公司 - ECS, GPACKET, HTPADU, OPENSYS
  • 最新季度开始赚钱的IOT股 - TDEX (1Q17 RM447K), SYSTECH ( 2017年RM2.702M), MNC (1Q17 RM192K), KRONO (C2Q17 RM4.076M), IFCAMSC (1Q17 RM1.673M), EFORCE (1Q17 RM1.657M)
  • 有消息的IOT股 - Mpay (亏钱), REV (1Q17 赚RM8.002M)
* 1Q17 = 1st Quarter result (一个季度), C2Q17 = Cumulative 2 Quarter result (连续两个季度), K = 000 (千), M = Million (百万)

7.今天大起的另一个行业是钢铁股和铝业。9/8/17 中国的钢铁股涨停板,美国的钢铁股也大起,铝价USD2000。
  • 可以注意的铁股(Steel Company) - ANNJOO (PE 7.10), ARANK (PE 7.17), ATTA (PE 20.83), AYS (PE 7.58), CHOOBEE (PE 6.68), CSCTEEL (PE 8.52), EMETALL (PE 18.07), FACBIND (PE 11.90), HIAPTEK (PE 11.50), KSSC (PE 9.65), MASTEEL (PE 9.01), MYCRON (PE 6.25), PRESTAR (PE 8.38)
  • 可以注意的铝业(Aluminium Company) - ALCOM (PE21.03), LBALUM (PE 10.58), PMETAL (PE 22.38), PMBTECH (PE 16.79)

*PE - Price Earning Ratio (本益比)简单的说法就是需要多少年来赚回你现在投资进去的钱。1代表1年,数目越大越不好代表需要越长的时间。最基本的标准可以设在15倍因为马来西亚整个股市差不多在17倍。

8.另一个会轮回的行业是建筑 ,建筑股得到的合约往往很大可是利润很低可能只有3%。可以注意的公司 - EKOVEST (PE14.89), GADANG (PE 8.17), GKENT (PE 16), IJM (PE16.27), KERJAYA (PE 20.36) KIMLUN (PE8.94), FAJAR (PE 10.49), MITRA (PE 7.65), PRTASCO (PE 7.91), TRC (PE 11.80), SUNCON (PE 22.59), GAMUDA (PE 19.87), AZRB (PE 23.65),

9.接下来是最近一年注意到的大跌股 :

TUNEPRO RM1.02 跌40% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价)RM1.70 -RM1.02 

OWG RM1.24 跌 51% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价)RM2.54 - RM1.24 

MALTON RM0.975 跌49% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价)RM1.94 - RM0.595

SEM RM1.40 跌 29% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价)RM1.97 - RM1.12

UMWOG RM0.29 跌73% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价)RM1.04 - RM0.28

DNEX RM0.495 跌 28% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价)RM0.69 - RM0.205

TEKSENG RM0.535 跌62% - 52 WEEK Highest & Lowest (一年最低和最高价)RM1.43 - RM0.505

*跌的%是用最高价和09/08/17的闭市价做比较

10. 可以注意的指数股 - GENM, CIMB, Maybank, MISC, Tenaga

以上纯属个人分析与评论,如有任何疑问,欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。
From:林友志 (Lim Yu Chee)

Monday, August 7, 2017

Does Malaysia Economy do well since 2000?


Malaysia
Population
Indonesia
Population
Year
Value $
GDP %
 (Mil)
Value $
GDP %
 (Mil)
2000
93,789,736,842.11
8.6

165,021,012,077.81
4.8

2001
92,783,947,368.42
0.3

160,446,947,784.91
3.3

2002
100,845,263,157.90
4.2

195,660,611,165.18
3.5

2003
110,202,368,421.05
5.2

234,772,463,823.81
4.1

2004
124,749,736,842.11
7.1

256,836,875,295.45
4.9

2005
143,534,102,611.50
5.2

285,868,618,224.02
5.6

2006
162,690,965,596.21
5.9

364,570,514,304.85
5.5

2007
193,547,824,063.30
6.3
26.80
432,216,737,774.86
6.3
225.60
2008
230,813,597,937.53
4.6
27.30
510,228,635,279.29
6.1
231.60
2009
202,257,586,267.56
-1.7
27.80
539,580,088,908.14
4.5
235.00
2010
255,016,609,232.87
7.2
28.30
755,094,160,363.07
6.1
238.50
2011
297,951,960,784.31
5.1
29.06
892,969,107,923.09
6.5
242.00
2012
314,442,825,692.83
5.6
29.51
917,869,910,105.75
6.2
245.40
2013
323,276,841,537.34
4.7
30.21
912,524,136,718.02
5.3
248.80
2014
338,068,990,803.26
6.0
30.60
890,814,755,233.23
5.0
252.20
2015
296,283,190,372.55
5.0
31.20
861,256,351,277.36
4.9
255.46
2016
296,359,118,754.53
4.2
31.70
932,259,177,765.31
5.0
258.70

Thailand
Population
Philipines
Population
Year
Value $
GDP %
 (Mil)
Value $
GDP %
 (Mil)
2000
126,392,308,497.75
4.1

81,026,297,144.28
3.6

2001
120,296,746,256.63
1.4

76,262,072,022.22
2.8

2002
134,300,851,255.00
5.2

81,357,602,950.18
4.6

2003
152,280,653,543.73
6.7

83,908,206,456.06
4.5

2004
172,895,476,152.59
6.1

91,371,239,764.88
5.9

2005
189,318,499,954.00
4.5

103,071,585,462.60
4.8

2006
221,758,486,880.31
4.8

122,210,719,245.90
5.4

2007
262,942,650,543.77
4.8
63.04
149,359,920,005.89
7.3
88.71
2008
291,383,081,231.82
2.6
63.39
174,195,135,053.12
3.8
90.46
2009
281,710,095,724.76
-2.2
63.53
168,334,599,538.17
1.1
91.02
2010
341,105,009,515.33
7.8
63.88
199,590,774,784.58
7.3
92.60
2011
370,818,747,396.83
0.1
64.08
224,143,083,706.78
3.7
94.80
2012
397,559,992,407.45
6.4
64.06
250,092,093,547.53
6.6
97.10
2013
420,528,737,876.72
2.9
64.46
271,836,123,723.68
6.8
98.00
2014
406,521,561,093.36
0.8
64.79
284,584,522,898.94
6.1
100.50
2015
399,234,547,137.47
2.9
65.12
292,774,099,014.19
6.0
102.20
2016
406,839,679,301.94
3.2
65.93
304,905,406,845.91
6.9
103.90

Singapore
Population
China
Population
Year
Value $
GDP %
 (Mil)
Value $
GDP %
 (Mil)
2000
126,923,095,471.91
10.1

1,211,346,395,438.73
8.0

2001
127,212,731,119.31
-2.2

1,339,395,440,432.04


2002
136,256,691,925.27
2.2

1,470,549,716,080.71
8.0

2003
162,766,467,544.72
1.1

1,660,287,543,796.06
8.0

2004
196,053,942,193.91
8.1

1,955,347,477,285.91
9.1

2005
234,022,949,884.06
6.4

2,285,965,854,313.36
9.1

2006
271,974,858,948.52
7.9

2,752,132,089,196.58
10.2

2007
326,343,861,812.68
7.7
4.59
3,552,182,714,426.55
11.9
1321.29
2008
393,489,345,339.15
1.1
4.84
4,598,205,419,718.80
9.0
1328.02
2009
336,886,290,580.52
-1.3
4.99
5,109,954,035,775.98
9.1
1334.50
2010
387,290,741,084.78
14.5
5.08
6,100,620,356,557.32
10.3
1340.91
2011
469,287,734,302.83
4.9
5.18
7,572,554,360,442.62
9.2
1347.35
2012
489,309,844,392.05
1.3
5.31
8,560,546,868,811.69
7.8
1354.04
2013
508,115,793,399.22
4.1
5.40
9,607,224,248,684.59
7.7
1360.72
2014
521,843,492,853.73
3.6
5.47
10,482,371,325,324.70
7.3
1367.82
2015
444,166,579,289.30
1.9
5.54
11,064,664,793,255.70
6.9
1374.62
2016
431,168,068,762.38
1.9
5.60
11,199,145,157,649.20
6.7

*Data get from some internet sources and accuracy not 100%.

1. On average for the past 17 years, Malaysia GDP growth 4.91%, Indonesia 5.15%, Thailand 3.65%, Phillipines 5.13%, Singapore 4.31%, China 8.14%. On economy size Singapore and Thailand are much more larger than Malaysia, and Philippines is slightly larger than Malaysia.

2. Therefore just from economy size point of view, Malaysia actually growth not so well or is below our expectation for the past 17 years. This is due to we use to compare with Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea but now we are actually just nice to compare with Thailand, Phillipines and Vietnam.

3. Another reason which bring Malaysia people feel more down or suffer in their life which we find out is currency - Ringgit Malaysia. Let us have some comparison :

Indonesia Rupiah - poor performance as well compare like year 1997.
 South Korean Won - still perform better compare to year 1997.
 Malaysia Ringgit - poor performance as worst as year 1997.
 Singapore Dollar - well perform until now.
Thai Baht - perform better than 1997 crisis
 Taiwanese Dollar - maintain at current level, stagnant for long time.
 Vietnamese Dong - poor performance as well.
4. USD is the major currency we use even until today, to judge FDI normally we will look at countries foreign reserve. Therefore exchange rate stand as an indicator which show foreign investor either buying or selling your country assets like bond or securities. As a simple conclusion we can get is foreigner actually pull out a lot of investment in Malaysia and Malaysia economy actually not well perform in their point of view. 

以上纯属个人分析与评论,如有任何疑问,欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。
From:林友志 (Lim Yu Chee)