Bargain Hunting for Big counters?

Source : https://my.stockbit.com/#/post/3666988

Look back The Edge newspaper 03/02/2020

Source : The Edge daily 03/02/2020

KLCI Monthly Chart Funny Find 吉隆坡综合指数月线图的有趣发现

Just want to share, how many months KLCI fall in previous crisis. History wont repeat the same however recent crisis due to coronavirus has created the longest KLCI monthly fall chart. Will this come to the end soon? Time will judge.

纯粹分享 ：以上图表是吉隆坡综合指数的月线图。1997年的亚洲风暴月线图跌了19个月，2008年的金融风暴的月线图跌了15个月。这一波从马股最高点1890(Apr 2018)一直到新冠病毒的大爆发，吉隆坡综合指数已经连续跌了23个月。我们已经来到了尾声吗？相信时间会告诉我们。

可以留意的公司

1. 随着全球疫情大爆发，我们认为手套股在接下来的环境里还是有作为的，首选股（任何跌都是买进的机会）

7113 TOPGLOVE
5168 HARTA
7106 SUPERMX
2127 COMFORT

2. 一些好公司推荐

5277 FPGROUP RM0.745  PE23.99, Dividend Yield 1.36%, Highest RM1.01 Lowest RM0.285 (一年内）
7161 KERJAYA RM1.22  PE10.81, Dividend Yield 1.23%, Highest RM1.49 Lowest RM1.14 (一年内）
9466 KKB RM1.74  PE7.56,  Dividend Yield 3.33%,  Highest RM2.37 Lowest RM1.17   (一年内）
7087 MAGNI RM2.03  PE17.30, Dividend Yield 8.12%, Highest RM2.70 Lowest RM1.95 (一年内）
5236 MATRIX RM1.89  PE6.43, Dividend Yield 6.41%, Highest RM2.00 Lowest RM01.87 (一年内）
3069 MFCB RM4.84  PE12.15, Dividend Yield 1.25%, Highest RM5.60 Lowest RM3.28 (一年内）
9296 RCECAP RM1.65  PE5.83, Dividend Yield 6.02%, Highest RM1.84 Lowest RM1.52 (一年内）
4731 SCIENTX RM8.51 PE11.80, Dividend Yield 2.31%, Highest RM9.87 Lowest RM8.11 (一年内）
5279 SERBADK RM1.85  PE12.32, Dividend Yield 3.77%, Highest RM2.52 Lowest RM1.73 (一年内）
5263 SUNCON RM1.82  PE18.25, Dividend Yield 7.00%, Highest RM2.20 Lowest RM1.73 (一年内）


3. 最近大跌的公司

4. 高股息股

5. 这一波可以算是完美风暴，疾病拖累了全世界经济加上马来西亚政治风暴和美股大跌。马股在这些内忧外患的影响下走进了熊市。接下来三个月要看疫情的发展以及公司报账如何很大程度很多会不好所以股市还有下跌的几率, 1400和1300点是支持点。建议分批的慢慢买进，这一波完美风暴对拿票等未来1-2年绝对是好机会，前提是要买赚钱的公司。

如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

US biggest one-day drops S&P 500 and DJIA

1. S&P 500 biggest one-day drops

2019冠状病毒病及国际原油价格战全面开打，造成市场恐慌加剧，导致美股上演黑色星期一。

美股早上开市後，道琼斯指数暴跌7%，触发熔断机制，这是美股在历史上第2次发生。

在美股暂停交易15分钟后恢复交易，一度出现逃命潮。

美国在1987年的“黑色星期一”的3个月之后推出了股指熔断机制，分为7%，13%，20%的三档下跌熔断。

30多年来的美股市场，此前真正触发熔断仅有一次：1997年10月27日，当天道琼斯工业指数暴跌7.18%，收于7161.15点，创下自1915年以来最大跌幅。

美国股市曾经历过5次单日暴跌，1987年的黑色星期一是史上最严重一次，单日暴跌20.467%。

以下是美国历史上5次最严重股灾的跌幅：DJIA

10/19/1987——20.467%

10/28/1929——12.34%

10/29/1929——10.16%

11/16/1935——10.11%

03/18/1935 ——10.06%

10/15/2008——9.03%

A quick review

1. DJIA hit 1st strong support level 24,720 and rebound. If this level crash down again we may able to see 23,500 and 21,750 (2nd strong support). For current situation, DJIA maybe just finished short term consolidation and wait for another uptrend. The biggest risk for US  is still coronavirus. Highest level 29,568.57

2. Nasdaq short term support 8270 however 1st strong support found 7300 and 2nd strong support 6188. Technology stocks rebound will be fast and strong if world economy come back to normal. Highest level 9838.37

3.HSI still in downtrend and might be consolidated side way since China market don't have any good news yet. Support should be 25,500 and 24,550, if HSI crash down 24,500 then it will go into very bearish situation.

4. Crude oil price drop is due to slow down in world economy which pull down the world demand for crude oil. Strong support is USD40 and USD 33. The price it will stagnant and consolidated around USD40. Crude oil is in downtrend however due to interference from production country the trend can change. 

5. Gold is clear signal on uptrend with volume. Market uncertainty and world central bank keep reduce interest rate will help to push gold price up further. Strong support 1535 and 1450. Gold might able to test 1700 and 1800 level.

6. KLCI start dropping since Apr 2018 which is the highest level 1890 points until now 1480. KLCI strong support will be 1400 and 1300, resistence 1514 and 1560. Due to coronavirus, politic uncertainty and low crude oil price, Malaysia currently face the biggest challenge for their economy. Malaysia is not an open economy therefore any sharp fall or deep fall on their economy will take some time for recovery. Unless world economy able to recover fast from current threat if not KLCI will drop further.

如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

大蒜价飙涨 民众抢厕纸 中国打喷嚏 全球供应大伤风

武汉肺炎（2019冠状病毒疾病）从中国迅速蔓延至世界各国，当中与中国贸易关系密切、也是最早沦陷的亚洲国家，许多当地制造厂商正面对需求与订单大跌，及供应链中断的冲击。

如果说，香港街头光天化日下抢厕纸的乱象，让你误以为是古惑仔电影中的情节，那么印尼洋葱价格飙涨，就是供应链中断所导致的真实日常。

---

武汉肺炎导致中国厂房延迟复工，已严重影响国内以至全球各地的供应链。此次疫情造成的供应链危机，也突显了过度依赖任何一个国家供货的风险。

部分疫区人民抢购日用品甚至有人持刀抢劫厕纸，反映了疫情肆虐下的民心惶惶，民众对供应中断的担忧，远远盖过了供应正常的实况。

相比下，印尼大蒜价格一周内飙涨70%，就确实反映了供应链的问题。当地大蒜价格狂涨，不是因为民众盲抢，而是印尼十分依赖中国的进口大蒜，当地90%大蒜来自中国。

不管是厕纸还是大蒜，都反映了我们的日常生活和更广泛的经济皆十分依赖供应链的顺利运转。

中国作为许多商品的主要出口国，假设当地生产在未来一个月甚至两个月都未能恢复，哪些国家将最受影响呢？

大马获看好可从区域生产线重组中受惠，但近期的政局乱象恐怕会扰乱原有的优势；图为槟岛。

华侨银行（OCBC）经济学家威廉韦冉多（Wellian Wiranto）指出，不管是看中间商品的进口份额，还是计算供应链的集中风险，越南面对的影响远远超过其他区域国家。

他在一份分析报告指出，透过各国向中国输入中间商品（也称仲介材）的数量，可看出他们对中国供应的依赖程度。

以进口自中国的中间商品占总生产的比重排名，越南是区域内最依赖中国的国家，接近三分一的仲介材来自该国。

“越南虽然成功把自己推广为中美贸易战下的外来投资替代国，但当地工厂看来仍与中国的命运息息相关。”

综合华侨银行、世界银行、CEIC和彭博数据，亚洲10国加美国的11个国家当中，紧随越南之后、第2依赖中国的就是制造业发展蓬勃的韩国，进口比重超过27%。例如韩国现代汽车2月初就因中国进口的零件供应短缺而宣布停产。只是汽车零件，韩国去年从中国进口的总值就高达15.6亿美元（约65亿令吉）。

其他排名前五的国家还有菲律宾（25.4%）、印尼（24.2%）和香港（24%）。马来西亚在11个国家中，以19.4%的进口比重名列第7；日本以19.9%排名第6。

相比下，新加坡的依赖程度最低，只占8%。该国的中间商品首3大进口国分别是美国、瑞士和日本，这也反映了该国更高端的制造业。

根据赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数（Herfindahl-Hirschman Index，简称HHI），越南是集中风险最高的国家。除了中国供应大部分的中间商品，该国第2大供应来自韩国（占15%）；随后为日本（8%）。

假设来自这3个国家的供应出现任何问题，越南半数的中间商品进口将受到干扰。

韩国的集中风险也很高，HHI接近1300点，在11国排名中仅次于越南。韩国首3大供应国是中国、日本和美国，占了该国中间商品所需的47%。

另外，马来西亚和新加坡的生产商品供应商看来更加多元化。以我国为例，除了有将近20%的中间商品来自中国，其他供应国的份额都只有单位数，半数供应来自最多6个贸易国，反映我国的供应源头更加多元化。

我国的HHI是744点，稍低于新加坡的747点，两国在11国中，分列第9和第8位。

威廉说，就厂房的生产材料短缺而言，短期内那些少依赖中国的国家如新加坡所面对的直接影响会更少。影响还是有，但相对没有这么糟。

换言之，HHI较低的国家可能会因其更广泛的供应商基础，而找到更多的替代供应商。

在年初因疫情延长春节假期之后 ，中国一些地方政府已开始放松隔离要求并敦促厂商重启生产；威廉认为，这当中明显作出了一个重要的权衡。

但他指出，为了助舒缓停工对经济的冲击而过多的放宽抗疫措施，可能会换来加速病毒传播的潜在风险，若这真的发生，甚至可能带来更长的停工期。

“尽管如此，当局选择重新聚焦在恢复生产的这个事实，可能反映了目前经济受创的痛苦程度。”

多元化供应链，显然是各国自保的最大方向。不过，过去被视为中国这个世界工厂替代国的越南，本身却最依赖中国的供应，面对的风险也最大。在此情况下，想从中国撤离的外资该在何处落脚？

威廉认为，大马是其中一个可出线的国家，但近期的政局乱象恐怕会扰乱原有的优势。

“大马在过去一年静悄悄但自信的赢得了不少外来直接投资，尤其吸引不少外资入驻槟城周遭的科技园区。大马原本可以继续在这领域的复苏，但近期的政治闹剧恐会坏事。”

威廉指出，从许多方面来看，自2018年中旬开始的中美贸易战，已经在推动区域生产线的重组。如今的疫情料将进一步加速这个进程，这也是东协政府和企业应该注意的。

什么是赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数？

HHI是用来计算集中风险的一个方程式，藉以测量产业市场的集中度。指数越高，集中度就越高，这意味依赖风险亦越高。传统上，HHI是用来量化特定市场的垄断程度。

HHI的计算方式，是先拿各业者的市占率百分比，再取这个市占率的平方，并将这些平方值加总。

如果A国只向一个国家进口商品，后者市占率将是100%，HHI将达到最高集中风险的1万点。若B国向100个国家进口商品，且各国均分1%市占率，那么HHI只有100点，意味集中风险低，且没有过度依赖任何一个供应源头。

Source : https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/647814

Glove - Buy call for this quarter

This is the only industry you should focus in this quarter.

Malaysia government change!!

1. Pakatan Harapan only able to stay in power for 1 year and 9 months as Malaysia government. Good or bad history will judge, Tun M will have what kind of write up all leave to history.

2. The biggest risk for investment is country risk, when politic uncertainty and trust start diminish lot bad things can happen.

3. The impact for coronavirus on real business market start to show and predict lot economy data issue will be bad and lot company quarter result will be bad as well.

4. KLCI technically already go into bear market, index strong upport is 1400 and 1300. For all these information we gather, Malaysia now has the highest chance to go into perfect storm.

5. Wait and see is the best way, good fundamental private company drop is chance.

6. Remember any storm one day will over and shares market will up back as well. Stand strong keep your cash and wait for chance, any crisis is your chance to double up your wealth.

Singapore Budget 2020 highlights

The following are the highlights of Singapore's Budget 2020:

• Singapore sets aside S$800 million to counter Covid-19, bulk goes to MoH
• Two special packages worth S$5.6 billion to tackle Covid-19 impact on Singapore’s economy
• Singapore has named five sectors that have been directly affected by the Covid-19 outbreak to get additional support: tourism, aviation, retail, food services, point-to-point transport services 
• GST to remain at 7% in 2021 
• Singapore has lowered its 2020 GDP growth forecasts from growth of between 0.5% and 2.5% to a contraction of between -0.5% and growth of 1.5% 
• 15% property tax rebate for qualifying commercial properties 
• Temporary bridging loan programme of up to S$1 million with interest rate capped at 5% to be introduced for one year for enterprises in tourism sector, government to take up 80% of loan risk 
• Changi airport gets 15% property tax rebate to combat impact from Covid-19 outbreak 
• Another S$300 million under co-investment scheme Startup SG Equity to catalyse investment into deep-tech startups 
• One-month rental waiver to stallholders in National Environment Agency-managed hawker centres and markets, half-month waiver to commercial tenants of other government agencies 
• One-off SkillsFuture credit top-up worth S$500 for every Singaporean aged 25 and above, available from October 2020 to December 2025 
• Govt to maintain foreign worker levy rates for all sectors in 2020 
• Govt expects budget position will be more expansionary in FY20, with a larger basic deficit of S$12.3 billion 
• Govt expects S$1.7 billion budget deficit for 2019 or 0.3% of GDP – lower than the forecasted S$3.5 billion – on lower expenditures from unforeseen project delays 
• Singaporeans aged 21 and above to receive one-off cash-payout of S$100 to S$300 in 2020. Additional S$100 payout for adult Singaporeans with at least one child aged 20 years and below in 2019. 
• Govt expects budget deficit of S$10.9 billion or 2.1% of GDP for 2020

Source : https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/singapore-budget-2020-highlights

Tesla - no share can fight for now!!

Last year when Elon Musk talk about privatized Tesla at USD420 everyone was laughing. Now Tesla reach highest price USD968.99, this is what we call US market the largest in the world nothing is impossible.

Influential Quotes

"If something is important enough, you should try. Even if the probable outcome is failure."

"Failure is an option here. If things are not failing, you are not innovating enough."

"I would like to die on Mars, just not on impact."

"I think South Africa is a great country, but if you wanted to be close to the cutting edge, particularly in technology, you came to North America."

Glove counters

Tribute to Kobe Bryant

RESPECT is the only word I want to use and I will always remember this "Have ever seen Los Angeles at 4 am?"

World's Healthiest Nations

Year end few important news!!

1.  Vanguard Group Inc 预计美国股市有50%的机率调整10%。

2. 东南亚拉抬通膨‧将推B计划

- 包括大马在内的东南亚国家明年通膨率预料将维持低迷，让各国中行面临艰难抉择。专家表示，决策当局须考虑动用“B计划”，以因应通膨始终难以升温的局面。

- “主轴将迅速转向‘B计划’，可能是前瞻指引、负利率及量化宽松的结合，即便是泰国也是如此，这将成为2020年的重大题材。”

- 泰国货币政策操作空间正急遽缩小。在泰铢激升之际，泰国中行一直难以将通膨率拉回1至4%的目标区间。

- 泰国中行上周按兵不动，将基准利率维持在1.25%。

3. 美债回酬率‧打2％保卫战

- 作为全球债市回酬率基准的美国10年期公债回酬率，2020年的关键观察数字将是2%，投资者将关注明年美债回酬率能否“保2”。

- 因为英国国会改选结果使脱欧之路趋于明朗，及美中达成第一阶段贸易协议，两项可能推升回酬率的催化剂都已实现，但目前的10年期美债回酬率仍仅略高于1.9%。

- 展望明年，尽管全球经济可望复苏，但联储局将维持低利率不变，将压低短期美债回酬率；中、长期回酬率也将因全球投资者持续寻找正回酬率公债，而使美债回酬率欲大不能。

4. Hong Kong loses to another Chinese port city as container volume grows in busier northern rivals

- Port of Qingdao in northern Shandong province has moved more container boxes than Hong Kong in the first 11 months

- Hong Kong recorded a 7.4 per cent drop in November, making it a 22nd straight month of declines in volume

5. 踢走星巴克‧台湾品牌成咖啡馆龙头

- 近两年开店狂飙的路易莎咖啡来势汹汹，统计至最新已经来到489家，将正式超越星巴克。

- 以2018年为例，星巴克营收新台币110亿元（约15亿令吉）称霸，大幅领先所有咖啡连锁通路。

- 根据今年前3季财报显示，台湾星巴克净利4亿8200万元，去年同期5亿零500万元，2017年同期为5亿8000万元，近3年来获利都呈现下滑状态。

6. 特斯拉重回“私有化“乱局水平‧马斯克得意的笑了

- 特斯拉据传从中资银行获得逾人民币100亿元（约59亿令吉）用于上海工厂的融资。特斯拉也正准备开始在中国交付当地生产的Model 3汽车。

如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

2020 Outlook Malaysia hospitals at a glance

FBMKLCI VS Peers 2019

Alibaba

Alibaba today listing in Hong Kong stock code 9988.

Google Temasek e-Conomy SEA 2019

Digital Financial Services - Google Temasek e-Conomy SEA 2019

1. SEA 400 million adults, 104 million fully "BANKED" enjoy full access to financial services. 98 million "UNDERBANKED" and 198 million "UNBANKED".

2. Five Financial Services are ripe for transformation in the digital era : Payments Remittance, Lending, Investment and Insurance.

3. Digital Payments are expected to cross $1 trillion by 2025.

4. Digital lending on track for a $110 billion loan book by 2025.

5. They can be broadly classified into four main buckets: Pure-play Fintechs, Consumer Technology Platforms, Established Financial Services Players and Established Consumer Players.

Pure-play Fintechs are independent players that have emerged to compete in a particular segment with a new business model or technology. They include companies such as Momo, the Vietnamese payments app, Stashaway, the digital wealth management service, and Akulaku, the Indonesian digital lender. Many of these companies have successfully grown their user base by addressing specific pain points related to access, convenience, value and transparency. However, they face high customer acquisition costs (CAC) and it remains to be seen whether they can generate an even higher lifetime value (LTV) to be financially sustainable. The ability to fund their balance sheets to scale their business models is also untested.

Consumer Technology Platforms count among their ranks regional Internet companies such as Gojek, Grab, Lazada and Sea Group. When it comes to Financial Services, these companies’ biggest asset is their established customer base, which transacts online using their core services such as Transportation, Food Delivery and e-Commerce. These platforms have introduced payment services to facilitate transactions on their core services initially, but from there, they are well positioned to offer other Digital Financial Services such as lending, investment and insurance, often in partnership with Financial Services institutions.

Established Consumer Players include the likes of telcos and retailers. These companies can reach a broad base of consumers through their physical distribution networks, all the way to most rural areas. The  key challenges holding them back from exploiting the opportunity at hand are the relative lack of Financial Services expertise and IT systems that are not usually designed to offer compelling user experiences.

Established Financial Services Players are companies that have been in the business the longest: banks, insurers and other financial institutions. They have the most experience and expertise of the four but most of them struggle to roll out superior digital services, hampered by legacy IT systems as

well as a thin talent bench in areas that matter the most, such as software development, digital marketing and data science.

e-Conomy SEA 2019 The Gross Merchandise Value (GMV)

Full report : https://www.temasek.com.sg/en/news-and-views/subscribe/google-temasek-e-conomy-sea-2019.html

如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

Profit YOY and Q0Q increase

List of companies with 2 years continuous profit and latest quarter to quarter profit increase :
公司业绩连续两年获利以及盈利在最新两个季度对比是起的 :

1. ALLIANZ 1163
2. CCK 7035
3. CYPARK 5184
4. DIALOG 7277
5. F&N 3689
6. FPGROUP 5277
7. FRONTKN 0128
8. GCB 5102
9. KERJAYA 7161
10. KGB 0151
11. MANULFE 1058
12. MASTER 7029
13. MBMR 5983
14. MI 5286
15. PADINI 7052
16. PENTA 7160
17. PESTECH 5219
18. PTRANS 0186
19. PWROOT 7237
20. QL 7084
21. REDTONE 0032
22. SCICOM 0099
23. SERBADK 5279
24. SUNWAY 5211
25. SYMLIFE 1538
26. UZMA 7250

List of companies with 2 years continuous profit and latest quarter to quarter profit maintain or slightly fall.
公司业绩连续两年获利以及盈利在最新两个季度对比保持或稍微下跌 :
1. AEONCR 5139
2. BAUTO 5248
3. CARING 5245
4. HLIND 3301
5. JHM 0127
6. KOSSAN 7153
7. MUHIBAH 5703
8. MYNEWS 5275
9. PETGAS 6033
10. SCIENTX 4731
11. SUNCON 5263
12. TAKAFUL 6139
13. VITROX 0097
14. VS 6963

List of companies with quarter to quarter increase ：
公司业绩最新季度对比是起的 ：
1. ARMADA 5210
2. CARIMIN 5257
3. DELEUM 5132
4. PENERGY 5133
5. DSONIC 5216
6. DUFU7233

We find out that this type of companies share price have more chance to appreciate or already in uptrend. 我们发现这类型的公司在这样的行情股价起的机会很高以及有很多已经算是在上升趋势了。

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com