Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Short Sell shares - 卖空股票

Making sense of the recent short attack against Silverlake Axis Ltd

Over the past few years, it seems that companies in Singapore’s stock market have been an attractive target for market participants who publish negative investing reports.

It wasn’t too long ago when commodities trader Olam International Ltd (SGX: O32) first found itself in the crosshairs of the short-seller Muddy Waters in 2012. Since then, there have been a slew of critical reports appearing, targeting companies like Sino Grandness Food Industry Group Ltd (SGX: T4B), China Minzhong Food Corporation Limited (SGX: K2N), and more recently, Noble Group Limited (SGX: N21).

(For more on the reports concerning the latter trio, see here, here, and here.)

Last week, another locally-listed firm joined the list and it’s none other than Silverlake Axis Ltd (SGX: 5CP), a Malaysia-based software company. Silverlake Axis, whose technological products, systems, and solutions serve many major financial institutions in the Southeast Asia region, is one of the most successful software companies that Malaysia has produced.

From the fiscal year ended 30 June 2005 (FY2005) to FY2015, Silverlake Axis has seen its revenue and profit jump five- and four-fold respectively.

But, an investing report was published on 20 August 2015 in which the writer, who “may” be short Silverlake Axis’s shares (when you’re short, you’re betting that the price of a stock will fall), has likened Silverlake Axis to high-profile fraud cases in the past involving software companies like Longtop Financial from China and Satyam Computer Services from India. It’s a serious accusation.

According to the 42-page report, Silverlake Axis has huge related-party transactions (RPT) with private companies that are linked to its executive chairman and founder, Goh Peng Ooi. Moreover, these RPTs are huge, accounting for around a quarter of Silverlake Axis’ revenue and expenses. Some of the more serious accusations that are levelled against Silverlake Axis in the report include:
Some RPTs are fake transactions that are purely used to inflate Silverlake Axis’s profit.
Silverlake Axis had acquired and/or merged with a number of private companies that are held by Goh over the years. But prior to the corporate actions, the private companies had inflated their revenues and profits; this in essence results in Silverlake Axis overpaying for them.
Goh has been enriching himself at the expense of Silverlake Axis’s minority shareholders.
Goh’s accused of impropriety through the construction of a “complex and deceiving corporate structure” with Silverlake Axis.

Foolish Summary

The allegations made by the anonymous writer of the investing report is very severe. When the report was first published, Silverlake Axis’s share price saw a hefty 24% collapse the very next day on Friday, 21 August 2015.

Given the severity of the accusations, it will be surprising if Silverlake Axis does not take action against the writer and others who may be involved with the report. In a statement filed with bourse operator and regulator Singapore Exchange yesterday, Silverlake Axis mentioned that it’s currently seeking legal advice on the matter.

The company also commented in the same filing that it “will be engaging Deloitte Singapore to undertake an independent review of the allegations… referred to in the Report and to provide its finding and conclusions as to their veracity, which [Silverlake Axis] will publish in due course.”


1.看完这篇文章后想和大家分享一下卖空股票。股市里要如何赚大钱,在马来西亚很多时候只有股票上涨才能够赚钱。但是最近马来西亚和新加坡开始兴起卖空股票的风潮(根据大马证券交易所的规定,卖空股票需要向有关当局申请)像是最近的 Airasia 和这只新加坡股 Silverlake Axis Ltd。

2.这些卖空都是由外资操盘的,他们运用大量的资金再加上一份报告就足以把你多年来的“努力”一扫而空。当然我觉得他们不是随便乱来的,你看那些受攻击的公司规模都不小。

Airasia  最高RM2.90   最低RM0.765  足足跌了73.60%
Olam     最高SGD2.55 最低SGD1.68   跌了34.11%

这是否也证明了,他们所选写的报告是对的?

3.股市不单是牛市才能赚钱,熊市也有钱途!从危机中寻求转机固然不简单,一般而言涉及的资金非常庞大,但从中带来的盈利非常可观。那么这场大户的游戏派对,身为散户的你我又怎样拿到加入呢?

4.这里为大家举个例子:现阶段的股市很多人都说是熊市对吧,这也意味着股市仍有下行风险。在马来西亚如果你持有某一只股票你可以选择短时间内以某个价位先卖过后才买回,这样的做法没有违规。通常先卖后买可以在同一天里执行或等待更久在价钱低的时候才买回。这不仅要有接受风险的胆识,而投资者也必须对这只股票的波动很了解。

5.如果你是风险爱好者,在股市每况愈下的时候,与其每天无时无刻地期盼股票回温,不如注意它的跌势,掌握时机,逆境求存。投资里没有稳赚不赔的生意;此做法有机会拉低你的本钱,但如果对股票资讯缺乏掌握或时机不当,则有可能面临巨大的损失。

6.这个方法不简单,需要经验但不代表你做不到,有挑战才会有进步。个人认为最近这些卖空的人很专业,如果有任何报告出来又大量卖空的话还是小心为妙。


以上纯属个人分析与评论,如有任何疑问,欢迎与我交流讨论。

From:林友志 (Lim Yu Chee)

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

马币和马股

这篇文章分享于 04/08/2015 

6 July 2015
SGD/RM  2.8351  USD/RM 3.8233

3 Aug 2015
SGD/RM 2.8019.  USD/RM 3.8563

1.以趋势来看,美金接下来对全球货币应该还是会起。美金对马币以突破3.82 为关键点,突破过后很大可能会去到3.92然后4.0 前些时候有消息国行或许放行马币贬值到4.0而且这也是最低限度。

2.简单从以上数据拿来比较的话可以发现,通常美金起新币也会起。但是这一轮美金起了新币还是保持,为什么呢?个人意见,新加坡第二季度最新GDP下跌 -4.6%之前是成长+4.2%. 为什么差别这么大,新加坡经济主要靠电子产品出口,加工石油出口,和服务业。全球经济疲弱和新币过高都对电子需求造成一定的影响,油价大跌让大公司分分减产也让生意减少了一大半,新币增值让国内人更愿意出国大大减少了国内消费,外国旅客也减少了。

3.那为什么新币还继续保持那么高能,这都是新加坡中央银行的决定。原因应该是,新加坡创国50周年再加上要大选了。消息指出新加坡,九月很有可能会大选。

4.这么高的货币,某种程度上以对新加坡经济造成伤害但是新加坡底子好还承担得起。但是长远来讲不是办法,或许新币短时间还会往上一点但是如果开始下滑的话或许会跌回2.6或2.5 很大程度决定于新加坡大选几时才到?

5.那该不该买马票,很奇怪的是经济不好,政治混乱但是这一次的股票还没到大跌(以指数来看)。如果和以前比较起来不美金3.8和政治大乱不跌破1500才怪。但是这样的行情还能让你赚到钱,有点不可思议。所以,我认为股市还没玩完因为操控者还没放手加上很多要卖的外资早就卖了大部分的票了。现在的行情属于短期交易比较多。

6.短期内指数股很难起除非炒家要做指数像昨天那样,最后起21点但是很短暂,个别行业还是看好电子,家具和手套因为出口赚美金.石油股难除非油价大起-不容易。大宗商品也都很难像油棕价钱还是不好。产业股也很难,银行业还在继续减少开销。

7.接下来新兴市场要面临最大的挑战应该会有 一,美国九月起利率,二,原产品价格在继续往下跌,三,主要大国中国经济持续疲弱。

纯粹分享一些想法与看法。任何问题可以联络我。

From : 林友志 ( Lim Yu Chee)

1.在短短不到的23天里,马币跌倒了一个超低价位,我在年头才和顾客分享如果马币跌破4新币跌破3那么我们的经济和股票将会很痛苦。这是我们最不希望发生的事情,可是事与愿违面对现实马币暂时回魂乏术。

2.最新的价位 SGD/RM 3.0516 USD/RM 4.2850。 在23天里兑新币跌了8.91%,兑美金跌了11.11%。没错我们现在是亚洲货币里跌的最惨的一个国家,不过这么快的跌幅或许也一味着谷底或许不远了。很多人会问那会跌倒哪里,目标价4.5和3.2

3.KLCI 最高点是1889点,股市要跌20%才会进入熊市,所以股市要跌破1510点才会迎来熊市。我们原本在昨天已进入熊市(跌到1503点)可是因为本地基金经理的强力扶持,股市昨天强力反弹31点。预计股市短期波动在1510-1600点,大起大落后的股市将会慢慢平静下来寻找下一个支持点。

4.股票大跌绝对是机会买进的时候,这一波大跌许多股的股价从高点已经滑落超过了30%尤其是石油股跌幅超过了60%。如果仔细的研究的话,许多股的股价低过其资产价值,本益比都在很低的倍数。我建议选股的话寻找这个季度还能够有盈利的公司,因为这是GST实行过后的第一个报表。

From 林友志 (Lim Yu Chee)