World's Healthiest Nations

Year end few important news!!

1.  Vanguard Group Inc 预计美国股市有50%的机率调整10%。

2. 东南亚拉抬通膨‧将推B计划

- 包括大马在内的东南亚国家明年通膨率预料将维持低迷，让各国中行面临艰难抉择。专家表示，决策当局须考虑动用“B计划”，以因应通膨始终难以升温的局面。

- “主轴将迅速转向‘B计划’，可能是前瞻指引、负利率及量化宽松的结合，即便是泰国也是如此，这将成为2020年的重大题材。”

- 泰国货币政策操作空间正急遽缩小。在泰铢激升之际，泰国中行一直难以将通膨率拉回1至4%的目标区间。

- 泰国中行上周按兵不动，将基准利率维持在1.25%。

3. 美债回酬率‧打2％保卫战

- 作为全球债市回酬率基准的美国10年期公债回酬率，2020年的关键观察数字将是2%，投资者将关注明年美债回酬率能否“保2”。

- 因为英国国会改选结果使脱欧之路趋于明朗，及美中达成第一阶段贸易协议，两项可能推升回酬率的催化剂都已实现，但目前的10年期美债回酬率仍仅略高于1.9%。

- 展望明年，尽管全球经济可望复苏，但联储局将维持低利率不变，将压低短期美债回酬率；中、长期回酬率也将因全球投资者持续寻找正回酬率公债，而使美债回酬率欲大不能。

4. Hong Kong loses to another Chinese port city as container volume grows in busier northern rivals

- Port of Qingdao in northern Shandong province has moved more container boxes than Hong Kong in the first 11 months

- Hong Kong recorded a 7.4 per cent drop in November, making it a 22nd straight month of declines in volume

5. 踢走星巴克‧台湾品牌成咖啡馆龙头

- 近两年开店狂飙的路易莎咖啡来势汹汹，统计至最新已经来到489家，将正式超越星巴克。

- 以2018年为例，星巴克营收新台币110亿元（约15亿令吉）称霸，大幅领先所有咖啡连锁通路。

- 根据今年前3季财报显示，台湾星巴克净利4亿8200万元，去年同期5亿零500万元，2017年同期为5亿8000万元，近3年来获利都呈现下滑状态。

6. 特斯拉重回“私有化“乱局水平‧马斯克得意的笑了

- 特斯拉据传从中资银行获得逾人民币100亿元（约59亿令吉）用于上海工厂的融资。特斯拉也正准备开始在中国交付当地生产的Model 3汽车。

如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

2020 Outlook Malaysia hospitals at a glance

FBMKLCI VS Peers 2019

Alibaba

Alibaba today listing in Hong Kong stock code 9988.

Google Temasek e-Conomy SEA 2019

Digital Financial Services - Google Temasek e-Conomy SEA 2019

1. SEA 400 million adults, 104 million fully "BANKED" enjoy full access to financial services. 98 million "UNDERBANKED" and 198 million "UNBANKED".

2. Five Financial Services are ripe for transformation in the digital era : Payments Remittance, Lending, Investment and Insurance.

3. Digital Payments are expected to cross $1 trillion by 2025.

4. Digital lending on track for a $110 billion loan book by 2025.

5. They can be broadly classified into four main buckets: Pure-play Fintechs, Consumer Technology Platforms, Established Financial Services Players and Established Consumer Players.

Pure-play Fintechs are independent players that have emerged to compete in a particular segment with a new business model or technology. They include companies such as Momo, the Vietnamese payments app, Stashaway, the digital wealth management service, and Akulaku, the Indonesian digital lender. Many of these companies have successfully grown their user base by addressing specific pain points related to access, convenience, value and transparency. However, they face high customer acquisition costs (CAC) and it remains to be seen whether they can generate an even higher lifetime value (LTV) to be financially sustainable. The ability to fund their balance sheets to scale their business models is also untested.

Consumer Technology Platforms count among their ranks regional Internet companies such as Gojek, Grab, Lazada and Sea Group. When it comes to Financial Services, these companies’ biggest asset is their established customer base, which transacts online using their core services such as Transportation, Food Delivery and e-Commerce. These platforms have introduced payment services to facilitate transactions on their core services initially, but from there, they are well positioned to offer other Digital Financial Services such as lending, investment and insurance, often in partnership with Financial Services institutions.

Established Consumer Players include the likes of telcos and retailers. These companies can reach a broad base of consumers through their physical distribution networks, all the way to most rural areas. The  key challenges holding them back from exploiting the opportunity at hand are the relative lack of Financial Services expertise and IT systems that are not usually designed to offer compelling user experiences.

Established Financial Services Players are companies that have been in the business the longest: banks, insurers and other financial institutions. They have the most experience and expertise of the four but most of them struggle to roll out superior digital services, hampered by legacy IT systems as

well as a thin talent bench in areas that matter the most, such as software development, digital marketing and data science.

e-Conomy SEA 2019 The Gross Merchandise Value (GMV)

Full report : https://www.temasek.com.sg/en/news-and-views/subscribe/google-temasek-e-conomy-sea-2019.html

如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

Profit YOY and Q0Q increase

List of companies with 2 years continuous profit and latest quarter to quarter profit increase :
公司业绩连续两年获利以及盈利在最新两个季度对比是起的 :

1. ALLIANZ 1163
2. CCK 7035
3. CYPARK 5184
4. DIALOG 7277
5. F&N 3689
6. FPGROUP 5277
7. FRONTKN 0128
8. GCB 5102
9. KERJAYA 7161
10. KGB 0151
11. MANULFE 1058
12. MASTER 7029
13. MBMR 5983
14. MI 5286
15. PADINI 7052
16. PENTA 7160
17. PESTECH 5219
18. PTRANS 0186
19. PWROOT 7237
20. QL 7084
21. REDTONE 0032
22. SCICOM 0099
23. SERBADK 5279
24. SUNWAY 5211
25. SYMLIFE 1538
26. UZMA 7250

List of companies with 2 years continuous profit and latest quarter to quarter profit maintain or slightly fall.
公司业绩连续两年获利以及盈利在最新两个季度对比保持或稍微下跌 :
1. AEONCR 5139
2. BAUTO 5248
3. CARING 5245
4. HLIND 3301
5. JHM 0127
6. KOSSAN 7153
7. MUHIBAH 5703
8. MYNEWS 5275
9. PETGAS 6033
10. SCIENTX 4731
11. SUNCON 5263
12. TAKAFUL 6139
13. VITROX 0097
14. VS 6963

List of companies with quarter to quarter increase ：
公司业绩最新季度对比是起的 ：
1. ARMADA 5210
2. CARIMIN 5257
3. DELEUM 5132
4. PENERGY 5133
5. DSONIC 5216
6. DUFU7233

We find out that this type of companies share price have more chance to appreciate or already in uptrend. 我们发现这类型的公司在这样的行情股价起的机会很高以及有很多已经算是在上升趋势了。

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

美国股市到底如何？How is DJIA？

1. DJIA still in the high side and might break another new high. Current support will be 23,344 if this level break we might see a big correction (technical bear market / crisis, depend on that time situation) although strong support is 21,712.

道琼斯工商指数现阶段还是处于高点而且很大机会会创另一个新高。指数支持点在23,344,强力支持点在21,712。但是我们认为突破这个23,344就要小心了，预计将会发生大调整/技术性熊市/股市危机，这都要看当时的情况。

2. Latest news HKEX makes US$36.6 billion surprise bid to take over London Exchange. This action will help China to expand their financial strength, market deep, and variety of products.

最新消息香港交易所要以美金366亿来并购伦敦交易所，者个举动将有效帮助中国扩展其金融市场创造一个全球布局，覆盖亚欧美三大时区的国际交易所。

3. US as the world leader for almost 100 hundred years, he will use all kind of tactic to stop their competitor as history show.

美国这个大国大约强力统治了世界经济100年，根据历史他们往往不惜一切代价的吧对手打倒。

4. China choose a very good way is to find alliance rather than fighting US alone at current situation. What China need now is time and keep moving up. 

中国要时间崛起所以拥有好的联盟扩展是很好的策略毕竟现在中国还不是美国的对手。

5. However, World need this double engine to grow, China and US. Peace is the way. 

世界经济的增长终究都需要靠美国和中国这两个双引擎。和平是最佳选择。

Special Chart

Which Countries Own the Most U.S. Debt

Link: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/foreign-countries-holding-most-u-s-debt/

The $86 Trillion World Economy in One Chart

Link : https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-86-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/

5286 Mi Technovation Berhad

1. Share issue : 500 million, Market Cap : RM955 million ( Price RM1.91 12.20pm), Cash Reserve RM162 million, Debt RM5.434 million

2. Gross profit margin 51%, profit margin 32%.

3. Second plant at Batu Kawan targeted to be completed by 2H2020. Plan to grow capacity 5 folds in 2019 and 9 folds in 2020. Current production 17,000 sq ft / 8 machines per month. 2Q19 aim 90,000 sq ft / 45 machines per month.

Full report : https://www.mi-eq.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/FY2019_Second_Quarter_Transcript.pdf

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

Salute 0183

For more infor : https://my.stockbit.com/#/post/2841894

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

Market Crash?? 马股会崩盘吗??

1. FBKLCI monthly view by using Elliot wave. 

2.The Elliott Wave Theory is interpreted as follows:

a. Five waves move in the direction of the main trend, followed by three waves in a correction (totaling a 5-3 move). This 5-3 move then becomes two subdivisions of the next higher wave move.

b. The underlying 5-3 pattern remains constant, though the time span of each wave may vary.

3. Bank Negara Malaysia statement :

a. Latest 2Q19 GDP for Malaysia is 4.9% exceed expectation, supported by higher household spending and private investment. Manufacturing sector also grow from 4.2% 1Q19 to 4.3% 2Q19.

b. "The ringgit has played a very key role in absorbing… and has created a role [for itself] as a shock absorber to ensure that the external developments and the external shocks [do] not translate to disruption in economic activities," said Nor Shamsiah at media briefing on the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2019 today. She also noted that the ringgit weakness has somewhat helped increased order volume from the manufacturing side, and the country was "already seeing a trade diversion" from the ongoing trade spat between the US and China.

c. Regarding global bond yields' continuous fall, Nor Shamsiah said the downtrend movement of the Malaysian bond yield is not as bad as other regional economies. She explained that the Malaysian bond market is deep and diversified, coupled with a diversified investors base, which has helped cushion impact on bond yields.

d. When asked if there will be another round of rate cuts, Nor Shamsiah said: "We will continue to assess the external developments and how it affects the medium growth trajectory… both growth and inflation."

5. Our view : Ringgit may remain weak in order to sustain Malaysia economy. 2Q19 GDP 4.9% is far more better than other countries but this growth rate for emerging country like us is low as well. People wont feel the growth and might still suffer because other sectors GDP is dropping for example Agriculture, construction, and Public sector (consumption and investment).

However in terms of FBMKLCI view, Malaysia seems projected to have a uptrend in coming future. Our risk is external risk like trade war between China and US, Japan and Korea, and slow down in world economy growth.

1. 以上分析是以波浪理论为基础来观察吉隆坡综合指数的月线图。

2. 波浪理論的四個基本特點

（１）股價指數的上升和下跌將會交替進行；

（２）推動浪和調整浪是價格波動兩個最基本型態，而推動浪（即與大市走向一致的波浪）可以再分割成五個小浪，一般用第１浪、第２浪、第３浪、第４浪、第５浪來表示，調整浪也可以劃分成三個小浪，通常用Ａ浪、Ｂ浪、Ｃ浪表示。

（３）在上述八個波浪（五上三落）完畢之後，一個循環即告完成，走勢將進入下一個八波浪循環；

（４）時間的長短不會改變波浪的形態，因為市場仍會依照其基本型態發展。波浪可以拉長，也可以縮細，但其基本型態永恆不變。

總之，波浪理論可以用一句話來概括：即「八浪循環」

3. 国家银行的数据

a. 马来西亚经济次季GDP增长4.9%超越预期

b. 马币汇美金的低汇率有助于国家缓冲国外波动的局势，受益者是制造业因为订单与产量增加。目前全球经济环境甚具挑战性，这包括先进与新兴国家的成长皆放缓，持续的贸易紧张局势使外需疲弱，以及全球不确定性提高。

c. 马来西亚的债券还是处于良好状态

4. 我们的观点 ：马币汇美金会持续保持这个波动 4 - 4.3 为了支持经济的支柱制造业。虽然GDP增长有4.9%比其他很多国家都来的好，但是属于新兴国家的我们人民不会感受到好感。这是因为主要人民会会感受到的行业如农业，政府开销以及建筑业都放缓了。新兴国家一般需要5%以上的增长才会让人民感受到好感。

吉隆坡综合指数在经过一番大调整过后看上，这是因为经济并没如预期的大跌。如果外围混乱的局势得到缓解，以马来西亚现有的基础成长能力是有的。大型建筑工程如果有钱推行将有助与经济的成长，另外政府强力推行农业发展也希望会有成果。

下图是之前分享过的股市会大跌的月分 (八月/九月)：

This chart we share before, August and September is the month where major correction use to happen on average.

Reference :
http://www.enanyang.my/?p=1273143
https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/568028

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

Good data from CIMB research....updating

1.

Market move up if RM getting stronger, this mean Malaysia market still need foreign fund to push if not index counters hardly move up.

2. Foreign participation is important to market.

3. US data

4. Foreign shareholding in Malaysia equity market.

5. Historical bear market in Malaysia.

Since 1997, the average duration of a Malaysian market downturn has been 12 months, with the longest being 18 months. It would appear that the global and Malaysian markets may have peaked in 2018 and are currently in a downtrend. Using historical data that show a market downturn lasts 12 months on average would suggest the KLCI should have reached the bottom of this market cycle in early-Apr 19. However the YTD low achieved by the KLCI was 1598 points on 24 May 2019. It is unclear if the KLCI has bottomed at this juncture. Alternatively, if we consider the longest downturns of 18 months, the KLCI could see a bottom in mid-Oct 19. 

*copy from CIMB research*

6. Can take note Top 20 stocks trading near yearly lows (%). This is because lot of the time this type of stocks will rebound very fast. Best example KESM 100719 close RM8.43 +0.19

7. 1H19 Gain and loss of stocks under CGS-CIMB

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

Bursa Malaysia Historical

 
Current PE 18.58. Market Capital RM1,773 billion.

Market without border

1. According to Internet Trend 2019 - Mary Meeker report, world internet users have reached 3.8 billion which is more than half the world population. Although the internet users growth have been slow down to single digit growth but the market is still very huge and growing.

根据科技女王 Mary Meeker 的2019年网路趋势报告，全球网路用户已达到38亿人口超过世界人口的半数。虽然网路用户的成长只有个位数大约7%，但是这还是个非常庞大的市场而且还在增长。

2. Any product if you put online to sell, you will have the chance to reach the market which is beyond your imagination. Asia Pacific has the largest global internet users with 53% of world market shares however the internet user penetration in region only 48%. Therefore there is still a huge room to growth. Top 5 countries by internet users are China, India, United States, Indonesia and Brazil.

任何产品只要你放上网络销售就有机会触碰到一个过去你无法想象的到的市场而且是非常庞大。亚太区拥有全世界最大的网络用户市场占全球的53%，普及率只有48%，增长潜力非常强大。全世界网路用户前五名的国家是，中国，印度，美国，印尼和巴西。

3. E-commerce will be the future market for growth and whoever able to grab the market shares who will become the next giant company either in the world or in the region. This is the reason why so many companies are fighting so hard in this market. Company like Alibaba, Tencent, Grab, Airasia and others are creating an Ecosystem and transforming their existing huge traffic volume users to use their new services by using database and AI analysis.

电子商务已经是也将还会是未来全球企业主要的战场，任何公司如果能够占领这个市场将会成为区域又或者是全球未来的企业霸者。一些公司像是阿里巴巴，腾讯，Grab, 亚洲航空和其他已经开始在创造各自的商业闭环 (Ecosystem)。他们将会通过大数据和人工智能的分析把现有的网络客户群流量引导至他们的需求过后开始消费。

4. Few example companies in Malaysia which already start to create the future : 

AIRASIA 5099 - Air ticket / Parcel Delivery / BigPay / Hotel / Travel Package / Insurance

REVENUE 0200 - Payment System (Physical & Virtual) / BuyMall

MAYBANK 1155 - Bank / QRPayBiz

CIMB 1023 - Bank / Touch & Go

AXIATA 6888 - Telco / Boost Pay / 11Street

PUC 0007 - Red Hot Media / Pictureworks / 11Street / Presto Pay

GRAB - Ride / Food / Payment / Bank?

5. Airasia future is looking good but will Airasia able to transform from Everyone Can Fly to Everyone Can Travel  ( Travel & Financial Platforms for Asean)? Airasia have huge database to analysis your travel behavior and it have created an Ecosystem for you to spent and pay by using their system , all you need in the future maybe is just a website or an app.

亚洲航空正在从一间廉价航空公司蜕变成旅游与金融科技公司，这是一个大胆的创新与改变。亚洲航空拥有大量的航空数据可以分析用户的旅游需求与喜好，它还创建了新的商业闭环让你可以一站式满足所有旅游的需求，一切只需要一个网站或者一个应用程序。

6. e-economy Southeast Asia 2025 estimate by google and Termasek 240 billion. 谷歌与淡马锡预计2025年东南亚电子经济的规模将达到两千四百亿。

7. Top internet giant company in the world. 全球互联网企业市值领导者：

8. Social commerce (C2C) is growing faster than ride-hailing in Asean. 亚洲社群商务的成长预计将超越电子照车服务。

9. Effective + Efficient Marketing = One's Own Product + Happy Customers + Recommendation

    实际的 + 有效率的市场行销 = 个人产品 + 开心的顾客 + 推荐

Free Trial 免费是一开始最好的行销策略。

Happy free trial can turn to paid subscribers. 开心的免费试用体验将大大提高订户的成长机率。

10. Business no more limited to area, country or region, with internet the growth can be huge but the competitive is huge as well because your opponent might be one of the leader in the world market.

有了互联网生意不再局限于地区，国家或者区域。互联网提供了庞大的市场与成长机会但伴随着的也是强大的竞争。谁能脱颖而出谁就能成为下一个霸者。

*The growth of Airasia is very anticipate, will Airasia created a next 10 years glory, investors is waiting and watching carefully. Uncertainty.

亚洲航空是否会建立多一个辉煌十年是投资者期待的。不确定性。

*GRAB currently is one of the Top leading company in Malaysia in this area however it is not listed in Malaysia. GRAB is huge with raide-hailing, food delivery, e-wallet and maybe the first e-Bank in Singapore, it is valued at USD10B.

GRAB 已成长成一个非常庞大的公司，预计市值达到美金100亿(USD10B)。Grab很大几率会拿到新加坡开放的第一张虚拟银行的执照。

Sources : 

1. https://ir.airasia.com/home_ir.html

2. https://www.bondcap.com/report/itr19/#archive

3. https://technews.tw/2019/06/13/mary-meeker-internet-trend-2019/

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

How to earn money without a traditional job

Cut Interest rate mean a lot?

1. IMF already predicted global GDP is going to decrease therefore for countries to push their economy growth we can see some central banks decided to cut their interest rate.

2. Tough business environment may still continue if we cant find peace between US and China however Asian country may benefit from the fight. Asian still the fastest economy growth region in the world however we still wait to see what might happen from this keep changing business environment.

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com