这是我们之前做的研究，可以发现每一次上升和下跌的趋势都可以维持数个月。FCPO在完成2个月的调整后是否会迎来6个月的上升趋势呢？值得期待，特别是油棕股！！
一些可以考虑的油棕股 MBL 5152. UTDPLT 2089. UMCCA 2593. RSAWIT 5113. GOLDEN AGRI-RES E5H. BUMITAMA AGRI P8Z.
以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。
From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
FCPO 油棕
这是我们之前做的研究，可以发现每一次上升和下跌的趋势都可以维持数个月。FCPO在完成2个月的调整后是否会迎来6个月的上升趋势呢？值得期待，特别是油棕股！！
一些可以考虑的油棕股 MBL 5152. UTDPLT 2089. UMCCA 2593. RSAWIT 5113. GOLDEN AGRI-RES E5H. BUMITAMA AGRI P8Z.
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
八月股市谈一谈
1.首先，让我们来看一看一些最新的新闻
Source : 又到季度持仓披露时间 看看对冲基金大佬们买了啥？
Source : 又到季度持仓披露时间 看看对冲基金大佬们买了啥？
在美国，对冲基金第二季的主题是做空美股尤其是索罗斯做空力度翻倍。在这里我们想表达的是如果你只是个小脚色（资金不足也跟着一起卖空），美国股市最近不断的创历史新高或许已经把你扫地出门了。这是因为不是每个人都有那个财力来持续保持卖空的价位。这样的新闻通常是个警惕不代表股市会马上大跌。以经验来看下跌的股市通常很快，连续跌个七天就可以把涨幅全部打回原形可是上升的股市往往都可以维持一段很长的时间。索罗斯这么喜欢买跌是因为如果他的部署以及时间点能够抓的准的话，钱会赚的很快。(如果没有记错的话索罗斯很早就已经在买跌了而且一直放话股市会崩盘可是事与愿违)
2.
美国这一破历史新高看来还没结束。接下来的图表也解释最近多数空头都铩羽而归。
Source : 看看谁才是真正的大空头 索罗斯加倍做空美股
3.
我们会经常在讨论区以及comment 里介绍一些股票和分享股市近况。这是因为现在的股市变化很快所以为了分享第一手消息这是最快的方式。我们希望大家可以一起踊跃讨论以及分享一些意见。谢谢！
Nasdaq 所在的部位很高这是因为最近主要指数股报账都还是赚大钱。
4.
S&P 500. RSI-还没有要放弃上升的意向。
5.
还记得26/7，我们分享过如果马股要回到牛市200天平均线要突破以及1690点要突破，现在我们都看到了。或许有人会说今天2016-08-16的成交量很大有2.8亿要小心，可是看一看以下的新闻。
Source : 马股成交量破70亿创新高 2014-08-20
Source : 创历史最高纪录．马股成交量破50亿股 2014-08-19
我们曾经在八月份经历了股市最高成交量70亿。我们不否认接下来股市要小心不过现在却也是赚钱的好时候，切记不管任何时候保住本钱以及拿取利润都是最重要的。
6.
在这动荡的年代，市场如果有任何不利的消息黄金绝对还是会起。所以我们建议黄金如果有任何调整绝对是买进的机会。可以留意的股票也有 ETF-SPDR GOLD, Bornoil 7036, 以及 CNMC Goldmine (singapore)，这些股在股市大跌的时候有机会起上来。
7.
接下来让我们来看一看中国铁矿石的价钱，以上或许可以解释为什么这两天钢铁股会大起的原因。当然 Ann Joo Resources Berhad 的好账目也加了许多分。
我们会经常在讨论区以及comment 里介绍一些股票和分享股市近况。这是因为现在的股市变化很快所以为了分享第一手消息这是最快的方式。我们希望大家可以一起踊跃讨论以及分享一些意见。谢谢！
以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。
From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)
Monday, August 15, 2016
Friday, August 12, 2016
Malaysia 2nd Quarter GDP 2016
We are emerging country, 4% GDP growth consider low for us. I can't imagine if our growth rate is below 3% what will really happen?
Friday, August 5, 2016
Scandal-rocked Malaysia might soon be a hot investment
Malaysia is home to the world’s longest running bull market. That doesn’t mean it’s been a great place to invest – although it might be soon.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which covers 23 emerging markets, is up 11 percent year-to-date and 6 percent over the last three months (in U.S. dollar terms). The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) hasn’t kept up – it’s up 5 percent so far this year and down 4 percent over the past three months.
Malaysian shares’ relative weakness isn’t new. Since the beginning of last year (as shown below), emerging markets are down 8 percent, but Malaysian shares are down 18 percent (both in U.S. dollar terms).
Truewealth Publishing
Usually, Malaysian stocks move in unison with other emerging markets. This is because factors that affect the Malaysian market are the same factors that drive global emerging markets – like commodity prices, the strength of the U.S. dollar and investor sentiment towards emerging markets. But that hasn’t been the case over the past eighteen months.
The scandal
The beginning of Malaysia’s stock market underperformance can be traced to late 2014 when the “1MDB” scandal came to light. The scandal involves the US$11 billion government investment fund 1 Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB). The fund was set up by Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak in 2009 to invest in the Malaysian economy. But it has also allegedly been used to line the pockets of the prime minister and his associates.
Over US$3.5 billion was allegedly misappropriated from 1MDB. Investigations are ongoing in at least six countries around the world. A cross-border investigation by Singapore into 1MDB is reported to be the largest money laundering probe Singapore has ever undertaken.
A few weeks ago, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced it is attempting to seize US$1 billion in assets allegedly purchased with funds misappropriated from 1MDB. The DOJ alleges that stolen money from 1MDB found its way to numerous associates of the prime minister, who allegedly went on a lavish worldwide spending spree from 2009 through 2013.
(Some of the funds were allegedly used to help produce the 2013 film “The Wolf of Wall Street.” Ironically, the film, about a corrupt stockbroker, was produced by a company that was co-founded by Najib’s stepson – and was banned in Malaysia for being too risqué.)
The U.S. has not explicitly named the prime minister as complicit in the embezzlement, though documents mention “a high-ranking official’s” involvement. Najib has strongly denied any connection to wrongdoing and has fought the investigations.
Malaysian versus Brazilian markets
Weakness in oil prices – critical to Malaysia’s economy – has hurt sentiment towards Malaysian shares over the past year and a half. The country’s currency, the ringgit, fell 18 percent against the U.S. dollar last year. And the 1MDB scandal has also played a big role in keeping investors away.
Brazil is another oil-dependent emerging market that’s suffered through a long-running government corruption scandal. But its stock market, one of the best-performing emerging markets of the year so far, has rallied by 87 percent in U.S. dollar terms from its January low.
Truewealth Publishing
A key difference between Malaysia and Brazil is that Brazil launched aggressive investigations of implicated officials when the scandal broke. This has created the impression that the worst of the scandal is past. Not coincidentally, the January arrest of the country’s president marked Brazil’s market lows.
In contrast, Malaysia’s government is still officially denying that anything is amiss. The prime minister has dug in his heels, and has tried to thwart the investigation into 1MDB. Markets hate uncertainty, and until the scandal is under control, Malaysia’s stock market will continue to lag.
Malaysia’s market won’t stay down for long
But note that while Malaysia has lagged the July emerging markets rally, its stock market hasn’t fallen much. It is holding above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, so it remains in an uptrend. This suggests that there is strong support for Malaysian shares – as we’ve mentioned before – including big Malaysian institutional funds.
Truewealth Publishing
Malaysian stocks will likely start climbing before the 1MDB scandal is resolved, similar to the way that Brazilian shares started to recover when the scandal peaked.
This is because stock markets are forward-looking. They anticipate how future events will affect stock valuations. So at some point – it could have already happened – the worst case outcome from the 1MDB affair will be reflected in Malaysian share prices. The market will start performing better despite negative headlines.
Going forward, as more 1MDB revelations emerge, investors should note how the index reacts to additional bad news. If the price doesn’t go down or rallies, it could mean Malaysian stocks are still attracting investors. These investors may be buying in anticipation of a return to normalcy. That could be when Malaysian shares switch from emerging market laggards to leaders.
To invest in Malaysia if and when things change, start looking into these ETFs: the db X-trackers MSCI Malaysia Index ETF (Singapore; code LG6); the XIE Shares Malaysia ETF (Hong Kong; code: 3029) which tracks the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index; the iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (New York Stock Exchange; ticker: EWM).
Source : http://www.businessinsider.com/scandal-rocked-malaysia-might-soon-be-a-hot-investment-2016-8?IR=T&r=US&IR=T
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which covers 23 emerging markets, is up 11 percent year-to-date and 6 percent over the last three months (in U.S. dollar terms). The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) hasn’t kept up – it’s up 5 percent so far this year and down 4 percent over the past three months.
Malaysian shares’ relative weakness isn’t new. Since the beginning of last year (as shown below), emerging markets are down 8 percent, but Malaysian shares are down 18 percent (both in U.S. dollar terms).
Truewealth PublishingUsually, Malaysian stocks move in unison with other emerging markets. This is because factors that affect the Malaysian market are the same factors that drive global emerging markets – like commodity prices, the strength of the U.S. dollar and investor sentiment towards emerging markets. But that hasn’t been the case over the past eighteen months.
The scandal
The beginning of Malaysia’s stock market underperformance can be traced to late 2014 when the “1MDB” scandal came to light. The scandal involves the US$11 billion government investment fund 1 Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB). The fund was set up by Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak in 2009 to invest in the Malaysian economy. But it has also allegedly been used to line the pockets of the prime minister and his associates.
Over US$3.5 billion was allegedly misappropriated from 1MDB. Investigations are ongoing in at least six countries around the world. A cross-border investigation by Singapore into 1MDB is reported to be the largest money laundering probe Singapore has ever undertaken.
A few weeks ago, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced it is attempting to seize US$1 billion in assets allegedly purchased with funds misappropriated from 1MDB. The DOJ alleges that stolen money from 1MDB found its way to numerous associates of the prime minister, who allegedly went on a lavish worldwide spending spree from 2009 through 2013.
(Some of the funds were allegedly used to help produce the 2013 film “The Wolf of Wall Street.” Ironically, the film, about a corrupt stockbroker, was produced by a company that was co-founded by Najib’s stepson – and was banned in Malaysia for being too risqué.)
The U.S. has not explicitly named the prime minister as complicit in the embezzlement, though documents mention “a high-ranking official’s” involvement. Najib has strongly denied any connection to wrongdoing and has fought the investigations.
Malaysian versus Brazilian markets
Weakness in oil prices – critical to Malaysia’s economy – has hurt sentiment towards Malaysian shares over the past year and a half. The country’s currency, the ringgit, fell 18 percent against the U.S. dollar last year. And the 1MDB scandal has also played a big role in keeping investors away.
Brazil is another oil-dependent emerging market that’s suffered through a long-running government corruption scandal. But its stock market, one of the best-performing emerging markets of the year so far, has rallied by 87 percent in U.S. dollar terms from its January low.
Truewealth PublishingA key difference between Malaysia and Brazil is that Brazil launched aggressive investigations of implicated officials when the scandal broke. This has created the impression that the worst of the scandal is past. Not coincidentally, the January arrest of the country’s president marked Brazil’s market lows.
In contrast, Malaysia’s government is still officially denying that anything is amiss. The prime minister has dug in his heels, and has tried to thwart the investigation into 1MDB. Markets hate uncertainty, and until the scandal is under control, Malaysia’s stock market will continue to lag.
Malaysia’s market won’t stay down for long
But note that while Malaysia has lagged the July emerging markets rally, its stock market hasn’t fallen much. It is holding above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, so it remains in an uptrend. This suggests that there is strong support for Malaysian shares – as we’ve mentioned before – including big Malaysian institutional funds.
Truewealth PublishingMalaysian stocks will likely start climbing before the 1MDB scandal is resolved, similar to the way that Brazilian shares started to recover when the scandal peaked.
This is because stock markets are forward-looking. They anticipate how future events will affect stock valuations. So at some point – it could have already happened – the worst case outcome from the 1MDB affair will be reflected in Malaysian share prices. The market will start performing better despite negative headlines.
Going forward, as more 1MDB revelations emerge, investors should note how the index reacts to additional bad news. If the price doesn’t go down or rallies, it could mean Malaysian stocks are still attracting investors. These investors may be buying in anticipation of a return to normalcy. That could be when Malaysian shares switch from emerging market laggards to leaders.
To invest in Malaysia if and when things change, start looking into these ETFs: the db X-trackers MSCI Malaysia Index ETF (Singapore; code LG6); the XIE Shares Malaysia ETF (Hong Kong; code: 3029) which tracks the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index; the iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (New York Stock Exchange; ticker: EWM).
Source : http://www.businessinsider.com/scandal-rocked-malaysia-might-soon-be-a-hot-investment-2016-8?IR=T&r=US&IR=T
Tuesday, August 2, 2016
DRBHCOM News Update
1. Honda's first-quarter operating income was its best since the 2008 financial crisis
2. DRBHCOM hold 34% Honda Malaysia Sdn Bhd. (latest annual report 2016)
3. DRBHCOM hold 32.21% POS Malaysia Berhad. (latest annual report 2016)
4. Net profit from Honda Malaysia Sdn Bhd - RM578.476 million. Net profit from POS Malaysia Berhad - RM63.093 million
5. DRB-HICOM Auto Solutions Sdn Bhd (DHAS) DHAS provides end-to-end logistics solutions for the automotive industry, from the import of completely built up (CBU) vehicles and completely knocked down (CKD) kits to the final delivery of vehicles to the dealer network. DHAS also conducts pre-delivery inspection (PDI) for nine imported vehicle makes, namely Audi, BRP, Honda, Isuzu, Jeep, Mitsubishi, Suzuki, Tata and Volkswagen. In addition, DHAS also provides accessory installation services for both CBU and CKD cars at its PDI centres in Pekan, Pahang and in Shah Alam, Selangor.
6. Honda Malaysia Sdn Bhd (Honda Malaysia)
During FY2015/2016, Honda Malaysia achieved No.1 position in
the non-national segment, exceeding the budgeted 92,000 units.
Honda Malaysia also launched a new variant to its new CR-V and
introduced a new generation of compact SUV named HRV during
the year. This drove sales up to an increase of 14.8% with 95,403
units sold compared to 83,106 units last year.
Sales revenue for the year also increased by RM1.3 billion, up
by 20.9% from FY2014/2015 with the Honda City as the major
contributor followed by the newly launched HRV with 38.3% and
25.9% of the total units sold respectively.
7. POS Malaysia Berhad giving out 11.5 sen dividend ( Ex-date 07/09/2016) meaning
537.026 million shares x 32.21% x RM0.115 = RM20.5 million dividend pay out to DRBHCOM
以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。
From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)
July ETF
An ETF, or exchange traded fund, is a marketable security that tracks an index, a commodity, bonds, or a basket of assets like an index fund. Unlike mutual funds, an ETF trades like a common stock on a stock exchange. ETFs experience price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold.
ETFs typically have higher daily liquidity and lower fees than mutual fund shares, making them an attractive alternative for individual investors.
Because it trades like a stock, an ETF does not have its net asset value (NAV) calculated once at the end of every day like a mutual fund does.
Monday, August 1, 2016
Why Average Investors Do Not Make Money
The average investor makes poor returns on his money. In 2015, Dalbar's Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB) reported that the average 30-year annualized return for investors in blended mutual funds was 1.65%. Fixed-income fund investors fared even worse, returning 0.59% annually. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index advanced by 10.35% per year over the same period, while the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index returned 6.73% annually.
Investors have themselves to blame when assigning fault for underperforming the market so severely. Several decision-making errors prevent average investors from fulfilling their potential. Investors fail to make appropriate buy and sell decisions based on time horizon. They avoid profit-taking on winners and fail to cut losers with poor long-term outlooks. They chase popular stocks instead of following Warren Buffett's advice and seeking out ones the market undervalues. Lastly, average investors take risks not commensurate with potential rewards.
Time Horizon
A smart investor knows his time horizon and makes buy and sell decisions accordingly. With a 20-year time horizon, the best time to purchase new shares is when the price drops. Even if it falls further, the investor has years to recover from losses. Strategies such as dollar-cost averaging work well with lengthy time horizons, as it ensures more shares are purchased when the price is low and less are bought when the price is high.
An investor with a short time horizon, such as 24 hours to a week, should be more reticent about buying on dips. If the stock takes too long to recover, the investor does not make his money back. Unfortunately, the average investor often follows the opposite of this protocol. He puts more money in long-term investments when they are hot and loads up on short-term investments on dips.
Profit-Taking and Loss Mitigation
A tenet of buy-and-hold investing is resisting the urge to cash in after a gain or dump a security at the first sign of trouble. That said, the best investors are in tune with their portfolios and recognize when a stock is overheated or, conversely, when a struggling security has little chance of recovering. In these situations, savvy investors do not hesitate to take some profit on the winner or sell shares of the loser to mitigate losses.
The average investor lets the winner ride and holds on to the loser in hope of cashing in on a recovery, consequently leaving a lot of money on the table.
Chasing Popular Stocks
Chasing popular investments usually results in overpaying. Dotcom investors in early 2000 and real estate investors in 2005 learned this the hard way. Just because something is currently hot does not make it a good long-term investment. Warren Buffett amassed his fortune by investing in stocks the rest of the market was ignoring. In other words, he went against what was currently popular. The average investor follows herd behavior, buying shares that are overvalued.
Understanding Risk and Reward
Risk and reward go hand in hand. However, average investors take unnecessary risks not justified by potential rewards. For example, holding an overnight position in day trading represents a risky proposition. Too much could happen between the closing and opening bells, such as a major news event.
An investor who does not understand risk and reward holds on to a high-performing stock even with industry news emerging that portends trouble. While average investors fail to balance risk and reward appropriately, smart investors employ cost-benefit analysis to determine when it is suitable to take a risk.
Applying This Knowledge to XOP Investors
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSEARCA: XOP) experienced high volatility from 2014 to 2016. Its caprice has made savvy investors lots of money and lost mediocre investors equally large sums. It traded as high as $80 per share in July 2014 before falling to $22 per share in February 2016. It has since embarked on a slow but steady climb and, as of July 2016, traded at $34 per share.
Consider how a savvy investor versus an average investor might have applied the four tenets above to this ETF. Recognizing the unlikeliness of oil prices staying depressed forever and understanding that the ETF is effectively on sale, a savvy investor with a lengthy time horizon would have loaded up on it in February 2016. Meanwhile, the average investor would have sold out of fear and missed the incipient rebound.
Smart investors with shorter timelines recognized the need to cut losses when oil went into a tailspin in late 2014. Less-skilled investors could not bear to sell at a loss and held on longer than they should have while hoping for a recovery.
When seemingly everyone was bearish on oil, average investors avoided this ETF because of its unpopularity. On the other hand, savvy investors went against the crowd to buy it and enjoyed a 54% gain from February to July 2016.
Smart investors took the right amount of risk with regard to such a volatile ETF. Average investors either avoided it altogether or purchased too many shares at the wrong time.
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