US December 2018 - Finally bear?

Bursa an attractive hunting ground for privatisation

Source : http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bursa-attractive-hunting-ground-privatisation

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Salute (0183) RM0.485 - Mercury Target Price RM0.63 - 29/08/18

1. 冷眼在最新公布的2018年报里晋升为30大股东，共持有2,000,000股，或0.51%的股权。

Cold Eye in 30 largest shareholders holds who 2 million shares / 0.51%

2. 公司主要业务是贩卖 FOBO Ultra (tire pressure monitoring system for multi-axle vehicles), 一种蓝牙装置可以监控轮胎的气压和其他。主要出口国美欧国家占了业务77%，亚洲国家18.4%。

Company main business is selling FOBO (tire pressure monitoring system for multi-axle vehicles), one kind of Bluetooth product. Company main export market is US and Europe which contribute 77% revenue and Asia region excluding Malaysia contribute 18.4% revenue in 2018.

3. 公司在第三和第四季度连续亏钱，总数大约马币一百万一十万。公司全年负债大约马币八十五万.现钱有马币九千一百万是一间净现钱公司,每股现金值RM0.23

Company suffer loss for 3Q18 and 4Q18 with total amount RM1.1 million. According to 2018 P&L company total borrowing around RM854,000 but cash has RM91.1 million. Therefore Salutica now is a net cash company with cash RM0.23 per share.

4. 产品有望在明年第二季度更新版本。最新ProtonX70 也将装置这种轮胎气压监控系统，这或许有望带领一股风潮在汽车方面。这是因为多数使用此系统装置的是运输公司，如果Proton选着Salutica来制造的话将有望提高公司盈利。

Its latest generation Bluetooth-related product has reach final stage of development and expected to start contributing by 2Q19. This product is well receive by US and Europe transportation company to  monitor their vehicles. Recently new launch Proton X70 will use this technology as well, this might bring fashion towards private cars and if Proton select Salutica to manufacture locally this definitely will help to bring up is revenue and profit.

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

Recently two point of view which you prefer?

1. Kondratieff Long Wave Cycle

This point of view suggest that the world economy cycle in major trend is 60 years. Currently we are moving towards the end of winter where the world shares market will face a crisis in year 2019 or 2020. After that, we will move into spring for 10 years in depression mode which mean a slowdown in economy growth. However this crash down will be the golden opportunity for you to start invest in shares and multiple your net worth in coming years. Investors need to remember this every crisis also an opportunity for you. 

For further detail can google : 康波周期 - 周金涛

2. The second point of view is that the world market is going to melt up which mean you should see a dramatic and unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset class before it melt down. From history, every bull market rally will only end when you see everyone is talking about shares and buy call for shares are from everywhere. However in this bull run do you see investors are crazy for stocks?

What they suggest is that current fall in US shares market is just an adjustment, this is a golden opportunity for you to buy shares and gain multiple profit easily in next few months. This is because the last pull up is very sharp and time frame is short.

3. Both point of views are based on historical data and the variable are timing, economy facts, and world situation. The fundamental for countries and regions now are very different compare to last time, will history repeat again for world market? Let's wait and see.

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

中美贸易战的结果

1.以上数据是某投资银行建议投资者或许可以在七月份把股票卖掉然后九月份买回。因为统计数据显示七月份跌的次数比较多而九月份上涨的次数打平然后十月份上涨的次数比较多。以上数据可以参考但不代表事情会根据概率一模一样的发生。这是因为世界一直不断在改变，同样的我们所处的环境可变因数也在一直不断的增加与改变。

2.如果单看十月分的话，在1997 年亚洲金融风暴以及2008年美国次贷金融风暴，这两个十月份其实跌的都蛮多。1997年十月马股跌了-18.4%，2008年十月马股跌了15.2%。如果看完一整年的话，97金融风暴股市其实让股市跌了快要两年而08年的次贷风暴全年的指数都跌的很惨。到了2018年，十年一轮回马股十月也会大跌？

3.现阶段或许只是一轮小风暴，起因则是中美贸易战。美国从三月份开始正式对中国进口的商品征收高达600亿美金的关税，这场仗注定会对亚洲股市带来负面的影响。毕竟亚洲的出口绝大多数都要靠美国与中国。香港股市从年头开始，恒生指数就一直往下跌, 从最高的33,484点跌到最低点 25,125 , 12/10/18 闭市25,801点。

4. 以下是亚洲国家52个星期最高与最低点 :

香港恒生指数      最高点33,484  最低点 25,125   12/10/18 闭市 25,801点。-22.95% 熊市

新加坡海峡指数  最高点3641     最低点 3035      12/10/18 闭市 3069点。   -18.63%

雅加达综合指数  最高点6693     最低点 5557      12/10/18 闭市 5756点。   -14.00%

泰国SET指数       最高点1852     最低点 1584      12/10/18 闭市 1696点。   -8.42%

吉隆坡综合指数  最高点1896     最低点 1657      12/10/18 闭市 1730点。   -8.75%

5.历史上，引起金融风暴的其中一个因数是美国利率。美国从两年前开始便不断在每个季度把利率调高0.25%。从原本的 0-0.25%提升到了现在的 2-2.25%。亚洲货币也因为美国不断地调升利率造成外资撤走，货币乏值。为了捍卫不断乏值的货币，印尼政府已数次把基准政策利率调高，现阶段5.75%。香港金管局也因为港元乏值触及官方干预线，从今年四月起被逼数次出手捍卫港元。其基准利率也在12年来首次上调，从2.25%调高到2.5%

6.亚洲各国虽然都有不错的外汇储备，但是不到万不得已各国是不会随便动用这笔钱的。以下是各国的外汇储备： 

印尼          现在USD1,148.00亿   最高USD1,319.80亿   最低USD274.04亿

新加坡      现在USD3,980.61亿   最高USD3,980.61亿   最低USD41.74亿

马来西亚  现在USD1,044.00亿   最高USD1,551.65亿   最低USD202.30亿

泰国          现在USD2,045.00亿   最高USD2,156.15亿   最低USD3.26亿

泰国          现在USD4,264.00亿   最高USD4,434.00亿   最低USD383.57亿

7. 另一个会引起金融风暴的因数是美国债券的收益率。基本上美国10年债券利率的走势是我们观察的目标。这是因为美国10年的国债收益率上升一般上会影响到美国企业融资成本跟着一起上升。而且当国债的利率需要提高才能够吸引投资者购买时，其他的债券就更加难以卖出去。最近主要影响利率的原因有两个，(一)高油价带来的高通货膨涨使得利率上涨，（二）美国长达十年的货币宽松政策正在走向结束。

根据高盛集团的研究当10年美国债券升至4.5%时，美国股市可能暴跌20%以上。所以现阶段或许还不是属于大型的金融风暴。

8.如果市场属于金融风暴，传统上黄金会大起因为其避险能力。

可是，黄金最近只迎来不错的反弹而且市场也还没看到有大量的资金往这里逃去。

9. 

美国道琼斯工商指数在星期三和四连跌了1500点左右，星期五闭市起回了300点左右。只要指数不跌破23,000点这或许只是个调整。如果中美贸易战真的对美国带来强烈的影响，接下来可以预测的是指数应该会稍微反弹然后深跌。到时候投资者们就需要多加小心了。

9.中美贸易战对中国的影响非常深单看港股的跌幅就可以知道了。虽然如此，中国政府也利用这个机会大力改革以及强化国家的金融体系。中国政府现阶段正在把出口导向的经济改变成内需与高科技经济。这是因为中国政府预计其中等收入的人民将从现有的三亿人口慢慢提高到七亿人口。如此庞大的消费群将会把中国带往另一个大时代。

10.因为中美贸易战的关系许多台湾厂商和国际公司已开始撤离中国，他们主要搬迁的国家有台湾，越南，泰国，马来西亚，印尼等。从许多报道我们可以观察到这些厂商首选搬迁的国家是越南和泰国。马来西亚的政府在这里需要多加努力因为这是个非常好的机会来振兴国家经济。

11. 原油价WTI 一年最高USD76.90  最低 USD50.15   现在大约USD71.51

石油是个不容易解说的市场，市场很大可是却能够被新闻所操控。所以要预测其短期波动很难，长期的波动反而比较容易看的到。简单来说，虽然市面上有许多再生能源而且再生能源的使用率也不断在创新高。可是全世界石油的使用量却还是能够持续保持增长。主要原因还是石油比较容易取得，以及世界人口不断的增长造成对能源的需求不断提高。预计石油的价格还是会保持在USD60-70，如果有任何重大事件发生或许会往USD80-100。

12.

马股自从509换政府过后股市就开始一直下跌。这是因为所有政府关联公司与政府基金主导的领导层全部换了人。这轮大洗牌也让之前和前朝政府有利益往来的公司大幅下跌。现阶段建议投资者避开这些政府公司除非你很清楚知道公司的价值以及公司接下来的发展与方向。因为这些公司分分钟很可能会成为高风险低回凑的股票，这不是投资者想要的。

吉隆坡综合指数在这个星期大跌后给了我们一个很好的止损点。现阶段的指数反应了所有不利消息以及内忧外患。因此如果指数再次跌破1680和1660点，代表局势应该更加恶略投资者需要保本立场，等待机会捡便宜货了。

13.这里建议投资者选着这些类型的公司

（一）寻找好的私人企业，因为他们是拥有自我的能力让公司成长。

（二）寻找在这么恶略的情况下还能持续赚钱以及盈利能够提高的公司。

建议投资者卖掉手头上高风险低回凑的股。比如公司一直输钱，没钱要做附加股，盈利大跌的公司，没有前景的公司。你一定会觉得很痛，可是你手上的现金将会让你有资本在股市大坏时买进便宜的好股让你翻身。这样的机会不是经常可以遇到的。

14.

看好科技与出口股因为马币对美金的低汇率还是低于USD4.00。INARI, GTRONIC, VS，D&O

看好油气股因为高油价的关系。SERBADK, HIBISCUS, REACH, DIALOG, MUHIBAH.

好的私人企业：KGB，KERJAYA，PMETAL，TOPGLOVE，HARTA

15. 电讯股：小心，主要因为用户很难成长盈利一直下跌以及政府将会在3Q19出台新的大方向计划，改变应该很多。

再生能源股: 可以注意因为新的能源部长计划减少煤炭的使用量并提高再生能源的使用量:CYPARK.

航空股：Airsia Tony想要把这间航空公司打造成新的数码科技公司利用公司现有的资料库。

以下两个行业都需要长时间等待不过可以预见风险或许有限回筹可观。低风险高回凑。

种植股：可以注意因为政府已冻结开发新的油棕地。长期看好毕竟在无法增加供给的情况下油种地会变得很值钱但是需要较长的时间。现阶段高库存以及低销量无法让股价有成长空间。

房地产：单以股价来看许多产业股下跌风险有限。而且现阶段许多的产业股其置产还大过股价。

后记：如果现在是金融风暴的话你不会看到可以买的股。而且Maybank应该已经跌超过50%所以现阶段并不是金融危机。

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com

史上“最慢”加息周期，美联储究竟在打什么算盘？

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北京时间9月27日凌晨，美联储将会公布9月利率决议，市场普遍预计将会加息25个基点。

虽然这很可能是美联储年内的第三次加息，但此轮加息的频率和幅度较以往出现了“非常显著”的变化。

Sunshine Profits黄金分析师Arkadiusz Sieron认为，这一轮美联储的加息周期与历史对比显示出了明显放缓的特性，缓慢的美元加息周期对于黄金等关联资产的反弹也会产生掣肘效应。

美联储加息频率明显放缓

自2009年以来，美联储将近乎零利率的状态维持了接近7年，不算周四凌晨可能的加息，过去三年也仅仅加息1.75%。美联储对于加息展现出了更加审慎和平稳的态度，而这种新常态在过去从未发生过。

（1954-2018美联储实际基金利率，来源：Sunshine Profits）

根据Sieron的统计，在过去70年14个加息周期里，美联储平均每两年加息4.25%。如果按照这个速率，目前的联邦基准利率将会达到5.25%-5.50%。

举个与目前情况相近的例子，美联储在1999至2000年期间，将基准利率从4.75上调到了6.50%，同样加息1.75%却仅仅只用了一年；早些时候的美联储更加激进，1988年4月至1989年3月，一年不到的时间里格林斯潘领导的美联储足足加息3.25%。

Sieron认为，从统计数据来看，当前这轮的联邦加息频率仅仅达到历史同期的五分之一，横向比较近两个加息周期也要慢了接近两倍。

（1958-2018.8美联储加息速率，来源：Sunshine Profits）

为何此轮加息“不一样”

Sieron指出，导致美联储放慢加息节奏的主要原因是宏观经济环境的剧烈变化。美国国债规模达到了史无前例的水平且持续上升，同时国内通胀水平勉强达到了2%的目标，如果后期通胀水平没有大幅度蹿升的话，预计美联储将会延续目前缓慢加息的节奏。而此前快速加息周期中，平均通胀率都要高于2%的目标位。

另一个导致这轮加息“不一样”的原因是全球经济格局在这段时间内出现了大幅度的变化，低成本的亚洲制造商进入国际贸易市场使得美国本土的通胀率长期保持低迷。在经济增长周期内保持低通胀率并不是一个理想的状态。

同时美联储保持缓慢的加息节奏也有利于维持目前非理性繁荣的房地产市场，快速加息极有可能刺破泡沫直接引发下一轮衰退。

本次利率会议看点

对于本周的美联储利率会议，市场普遍预期将会加息25个基点。除此之外还有哪些看点呢？

ING分析称，除了几乎板上钉钉的加息之外，美联储对于全球经济纠纷的态度也值得关注。同时自鲍威尔上任以来屡次强调“美国优先”的理念，意味着美联储将会延续“可调节”的货币政策，提供进一步的加息预期；除此之外，联储成员关于后期加息预测的点阵图也是市场关注的焦点，市场预计随着财政政策收紧，美联储在2019年将会放缓加息的步伐。

另外还有一个与货币政策无关的事情，美国总统特朗普曾多次表示美联储的加息使得宽松财政政策的效果大打折扣。面对本周的加息，“戏精总统”免不了要发一番牢骚，但逃不过被美联储无视的结局。

（美联储成员对于加息的态度，来源：ING）

以史为鉴：加息当日美股表现

根据股票交易员年鉴（Stock Trader's Almanac）作者Jeffrey Hirsch统计，从2008年3月至今一共召开过84次联储会议。在过去84个公布决议的交易日当天，标普500指数收涨的一共有48次，另外36次收跌，指数平均上涨0.36%，而在公布决议之后的那一个交易日，标普500指数平均下跌0.31%。自从2017年12月31日联储会议之后，近6个联储决议日标普500指数下跌5次，平均跌幅0.23%。

（近84次美联储决议日前后30天标普500指数走势，来源：股票交易员年鉴）

后续金价怎么走

考虑到美联储目前的处境，未来在通胀率没有大幅提升的情况下，金价不太可能出线大幅上升。作为通货膨胀的对冲工具和避险资产，黄金未来在面对高通胀率和美联储超预期调整的情况下会展现出投资价值。

Sieron表示，没有人能够预测到下一轮衰退会不会来以及何时会来，但考虑到这一轮不同以往的缓慢加息周期，相应的经济周期也被拉长。可以预期未来黄金会有一波强劲的走势，但短期来看时机还没有成熟。

相对于Sieron的保守观点，也有部分机构和分析师开始高调看好黄金近期的走势。

Van Eck Gold的贵金属策略师Joe Foster指出，紧缩的货币政策可能会使得部分地区的金融系统出现较大风险，从而凸显黄金的避险资产价值；

三菱银行表示，投资者需要关注以中期选举为首的政治风险以及潜在走高的通胀因素对于金价的提振作用。

100 Days For Malaysia New Government and World Shares Big Event

1. KLCI hit the highest points 1876.5 on 14/05/18 and the lowest point 1655 on 28/06/18. It fall almost 200 points due to heavy selling from foreign fund everyday and foreign fund only start to buy back recently. However, confidence show from retail and local institution as the main supporter to the market.

140518 KLCI open 1815, highest point 1876.5, lowest 1781, close 1864 (Market hit highest points)

280618 KLCI open 1656, highest point 1675, lowest 1655, close 1666.5 (Market hit lowest points)

160818 KLCI open 1772, highest point 1782, lowest 1773 close 1777

2. Overall, Malaysia economy is predicted to have a slight fall in 2018 compare to 2017 due to change in government, reshuffle of all government related company and sovereign fund, and fiscal policy change as well. However the impact is positive because demolish of corruption and restore of rule of law will help to bring back the confidence from foreigner in the long run. 

3. Construction sector is one of the worst performing sector due to mega project initiated by previous government will be review or reduce the project size. Export counters start to run recently due to RM vs USD fall to 4.10

4. Hang Seng index hit the highest point 33,484 on 29/01/18 however due to trade war we can see the HSI start to fall and China economy looks like facing some critical condition in this moment. Technically 27,000 is the support point now for HSI and strong support will be 26,000.

5. DJIA still maintain at high level around 25,000 points. We also have Apple which hit market cap USD 1 trillion or equal to 16th largest economy in the world. Amazon is another giant which follow closely to become next trillion company in US.

6. If you predicted another crash in world economy, can have a look on gold price it hit the lowest recently around USD1180. Gold normally is the save heaven for crisis but we didn't see any big jump on this. We foresee Asean market is facing a big correction now due to previous bull run but crisis might not happen yet at current moment. But bear in mind things change very fast nowadays and as the ball is rolling will it roll to become major crisis to the world market? This is what you need to be concern everyday as well.

7. Therefore, which shares or sector should we concern for Malaysia market now?

a. Follow government policy or minister action closely as this will impact Malaysia market the most.

b. Tun M go China, we hope to have some good news on ECRL and CPO.

c. Weakness in RM may bring export counters to run a bit. However unless RM fall again to 4.5 if not export counters wont run too much.

d. Technology counters may benefit from the growth of Apple. Trade war might have good impact to Malaysia technology counters as well due to some production in China might shift to here.

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)

The End is The Beginning

09 May 2018, Malaysia welcome their first democracy in transition of power peacefully with Tun Mahathir sworn in second time as Prime Minister of Malaysia. Tun Mahahthir with age 93 set to become the oldest Prime Minister in Malaysia. He also created the history to become the first leader who jump over opposition and able to overthrow the government in recent history. This winning also consider people winning where Malaysia people choose to change the government after so much suffer under the control of Barison Nasional for 61 years. Therefore the end of the longest continuing ruling coalition party in the democratic world become the new beginning for the new ruling party Pakatan Harapan. 

This change not just give hope to all Malaysian for a brighter future and also give the Asian region government an alarming alert where people have the power to change if the current government cannot take care the people well.

Long term market prospect will depend on the policy set up by Pakatan Harapan. If they are able to create a fair and clean platform to rule the country, this definitely will bring Malaysia economy going into another new area for next ten years. Short term market will be a trading market where share price up or down mostly depend on news announce by government, news announce by company and quarterly result. Therefore we foresee any big sell is buying opportunity for Malaysia market.

Malaysia current strength are government is cleanliness, all minister come from good education background and more professional, government lead by well experience leader Tun Mahathir, high crude oil price and people are ready to rebuilt the country. However current weak for Malaysia are, huge debt (around RM1 Trillion), credit rating might cut by world rating agency, 1MDB debt default, ongoing project cancel might lead to huge compensation, foreign fund keep selling Malaysia shares and subsidy to people. All the weakness  take time to settle and it wont be solve immediately therefore the market will keep on flip flop but support by local fund manager.

马来西亚人民成功在二零一八年五月九号推翻了执政61年的国政阵线。敦马哈迪成为了马来西亚史上唯一一位能够两次宣誓就任首相的领导人。他也是近代历史里唯一一位跳槽到反对党然后成功把自己曾经领导多年的执政联盟推翻的最高领导人。

马来西亚成功迎来了史上第一次的和平转移政权后，未来的五到十年里新政府如果能够公平与廉洁施政的话长期看好马来西亚的股市。短期的股票市场会是比较波动的毕竟现任政府需要清理以及改善前朝政府留下的毒瘤。这样的市场适合大跌买进逢高套利。

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)

Crude Oil Technical Analysis: 1 May 2018

Sharing information from : https://donovan-ang.blogspot.my/2018/05/crude-oil-technical-analysis-1-may-2018.html

The largest technology company in Russia call Yandex

Russia also officially known as the Russian Federation, is a sovereign country in Eurasia. At 17,125,200 square kilometres (6,612,100 sq mi), Russia is the largest country in the world by area, covering more than one-eighth of the Earth's inhabited land area, and the ninth most populous, with over 144 million people at the end of December 2017. About 77% of the population live in the western, European part of the country. Russia's capital Moscow is one of the largest cities in the world; other major urban centers include Saint Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg and Nizhny Novgorod. (Information from wikipedia)

Yandex N.V. is a multinational corporation specializing in Internet-related services and products. Although most of its assets are in Russia, the company is incorporated in the Netherlands due to irregularities in Russian law. It is the largest technology company in Russia and the largest search engine on the Internet in Russian, with a market share of over 52%. The Yandex.ru home page is the 4th most popular website in Russia. It also has the largest market share of any search engine in the Commonwealth of Independent States and is the 5th largest search engine worldwide after Google, Baidu, Bing, and Yahoo!. (Information from wikipedia)

Yandex (YNDX) listed at Nasdaq with market cap US$11 billion. Below is the chart for Yandex shares price from 2017.

Yandex doesn’t just operate in the search engine space. The company has an email service and a cloud storage product. It has also launched a voice-enabled digital assistant called Alice. Yandex also has a ride-hailing and food delivery business. And in March, it formed a joint venture with Uber (valued at more than US$3.8 billion) to combine their ride-hailing and food delivery businesses in Russia. 

Yandex has also developed a self-driving car (which it’s already testing in Russia). It also recently signed a deal with Russian state-run bank Sberbank to create a joint e-commerce venture. And it has introduced a new feature for online shopping in around 76,000 global stores and services that give customers the option of paying for purchases in installments. (Information from Stansberrychurchhouse)

FY 2017 Financial Highlights

• Revenues of RUB 94.1 billion ($1,632.9 million), up 24% compared with FY 2016
• Net income of RUB 8.7 billion ($150.3 million), up 28% compared with FY 2016; net income margin of 9.2%
• Adjusted net income of RUB 15.4 billion ($266.6 million), up 9% compared with FY 2016; adjusted net income margin of 16.3%
• Adjusted EBITDA of RUB 29.1 billion ($504.8 million), up 11% compared with FY 2016; adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.9%

Q4 2017 Operational and Corporate Highlights

• Share of Russian search market, including mobile, averaged 56.5% in Q4 2017, compared with 54.9% in Q3 2017, and reached 56.7% in December 2017, according to Yandex.Radar
• Search share on Android in Russia was 45.0% in Q4 2017, compared with 41.2% in Q3 2017 and 37.0% in Q4 2016
• Search queries in Russia grew 9% compared with Q4 2016
• Paid clicks on Yandex's and its partners' websites, in aggregate, increased 10% compared with Q4 2016
• Average cost per click grew 9% compared with Q4 2016
• Yandex.Taxi number of rides grew 250% year-on-year compared with Q4 2016
• Yandex launched Alice - the first conversational intelligent assistant designed for the Russian market
• The Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Russian Federation approved the combination of Yandex.Taxi and Uber ride-sharing businesses
• Yandex and Sberbank signed a binding agreement to form a joint venture based on the Yandex.Market platform

Q4 2017 Subsequent Events

• Yandex created Media Services (KinoPoisk, Yandex.Music, Yandex.Afisha and Yandex.TV program) business unit
• On February 7, 2018, Yandex completed the transaction between Yandex.Taxi and Uber in Russia and neighbouring countries

(Information from 4th Quarter financial results)

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)

光大证券 石油美元 - 国际资本市场上的巨大力量

布雷顿森林体系瓦解后，美国和当时最大的石油出口国沙特阿拉伯签订了石油交易协议，规定石油以美元标价，美国则以其他方式协助沙特。这使得美元开始成了大部分石油交易的货币，美元在国际货币体系中的地位得以维护。由于石油是任何一个国家现代经济发展必不可少的能源和基础化工资源，石油进口国为了获取石油，必须先兑换美元，持有美元储备，于是美国就以控制着石油交易的方式巩固着美元在国际货币体系中的地位，石油美元也通过其他投资模式进入到全球金融市场，并回流到美国，成为国际资本市场上一股巨大的力量。

石油欧元——受制于美国霸权主义

就原油消费量以及全球政治与经济影响力来讲，欧元是最有能力取代美元作为石油计价货币的。然而，由于欧元和美元在国际货币市场上的竞争十分激烈，一旦市场上出现以欧元计价体系出现的举动时，美国往往利用各种手段和形式从中阻挠，以维护美元全球货币中心地位。因此，在美国利用自己强大的经济和军事实力，牢牢控制着 OPEC 和国际石油体系的大环境下，石油欧元对于石油美元的挑战短期内难以实现。

石油卢布——原油依赖型经济带来的石油-卢布困境

俄罗斯是全球最重要的原油生产国与出口国之一，卢布已具备成为石油计价货币的基本条件。然而，由于俄罗斯经济发展以及对外贸易过于依赖原油这一大宗商品，卢布的汇率和原油价格呈明显的一致性，这使得卢布稳定值大大降低，不利于投资和生产。一旦原油价格大跌，俄罗斯的经济将会迅速恶化，形成石油-卢布困境。

石油人民币——原油期货助力，打造三方“互惠循环”

2018 年 3 月 26 日，中国原油期货（INE）正式在上海能源中心挂牌上市，意味着国际原油市场开始有了中国原油价格基准，同时也代表我国石油人民币计价体系的正式建立。INE 合约有两个特别的安排：以中质含硫原油作为交割标的；期货合约以人民币计价，可转换成黄金。此举能直接避免 INE 与 WTI、Brent 的竞争，从而防范美国制裁；同时消除了人民国际化程度不足的风险，对原油出口国产生巨大吸引力。

若人民币在石油贸易计价体系上取得突破，将在以下几个方面带来有利条件：1）提高我国在原油贸易市场上的话语权，减少“亚洲溢价”，降低国际油价波动对我国石油行业、企业造成的冲击。2）助推人民币国际化进程。根据美元的经验，石油现货贸易采取人民币计价有助于维系本币在国际市场的使用价值和储备价值，两者互助互利、相互支撑。3）以“一带一路”沿线经济发展的内生需求为动力，以人民币的货币信用为支撑，打造中国、沿线经济体和石油出口国的三方互惠循环。

风险分析：中国经济转型、美国经济复苏带来中国原油市场影响力降低风险；美元走强，人民币国际化进程不及预期带来石油人民币推广风险。

Full report : http://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP201804131122798747_1.pdf

Top 40 companies by market cap

Still looking good at HK AIA

1. For the pass five years company business, profit, Shareholder equity, dividend all growing well.

2. The business contribution by country.

3.Wait to buy cheap for this counter.

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)

March Review

This is the first update since 2018, Malaysia market start with a bullish month in January however the power retreat very fast since early February. DJIA has the largest single day dropping at 2 Feb for 665 points. Review back we have a sharp pull back since that time and market sentiment change to become very weak.

1. DJIA - The index almost drop 11% from the highest and testing the psychology level 200 days average. This is a long waiting adjustment since year 2017, we foresee this is a healthy adjustment and may lead DJIA to go back higher again. However this adjustment still not yet complete and we are still monitoring the progress, mostly it may break the 200 days average and start consolidate.

2. S&P 500 - The index move in tandem like DJIA.

3. FBMKLCI - The only reason index remain so strong is because of election. However if you looking at share price which excluded the index counters most fall at least 20-30%.

4. Property counters very attractive now, after three years drop we may have this sector rebound after election? The ower the P/TBV mean the stock is undervalue.

Link : http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/still-not-appealing-after-fall

5. Some counters fall below their NTA ( price as at 23 Mar 2018)

• CSCSTEL RM1.40,  NTA RM2.22,  PE 8.96,    EPS 16.20
• KERJAYA RM1.53,  NTA RM1.55,  PE 14.81,  EPS 23.32
• IQGROUP RM1.41,  NTA RM1.74,  PE 16.51,  EPS 8.54
• PERSTIM RM3.56,  NTA RM3.77,   PE 13.65,  EPS 25.87
• BPPLAS   RM0.88,  NTA RM0.89,   PE 13.09,   EPS 6.83
• JAYCORP RM1.20,  NTA RM1.15,  PE 6.20,  EPS 18.36
• TGUAN    RM2.79,  NTA RM3.47,  PE 8.82,  EPS 34.87
• MUHIBAH RM3.00,  NTA RM2.18,  PE 7.42,  EPS 27.40

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)