KUALA LUMPUR: When Khazanah Nasional Bhd executive director Datuk Charon Wardini Mokhzani asked seasoned emerging markets investor Mark Mobius which markets he favoured, the expert replied that Malaysia features high in his list.
Noting that the ringgit is undervalued by 28%, and that the emerging markets in general are currently trading at attractive valuations, Mobius said it is time to pick up stocks here, given the emerging markets’ tendency to enjoy longer bull runs historically than market routs.“We are very positive on Malaysia now … We figured the currency is undervalued by 28%, which is why we have been buying Malaysian stocks,” said the executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group.
He was speaking at the Securities Commission Malaysia’s Global Emerging Markets Programme Conference yesterday. Charon was the moderator for Mobius’s panel session.
Mobius, who has been investing in emerging markets for four decades, rubbished fears of eroding fundamentals in Malaysia and this region.
According to him, when the ringgit was valued at 4.21 against the US dollar towards the end of January, it was valued 28.3% lower than the Malaysia/US dollar Purchasing Power Parity Index of 3.01.While the ringgit has been recovering from the 18% rout last year, it is still not far off from the value Mobius cited. It closed 0.78% lower at 4.137 per US dollar yesterday.
“Emerging markets have been out of favour, and this makes me very happy … We tend to go to where sentiment is negative,” he said. Last year, foreign investors withdrew RM19.5 billion from Bursa Malaysia.
While Malaysia’s slower official projected economic growth of 4% to 4.5% this year has caused uneasiness among many investors, Mobius argued that the projected range is still impressive and it is hard to etch a bigger growth rate from a higher base. He also said that not many countries can record a trade surplus now, but Malaysia can — although the figures have been falling over the years.
Mobius observed that while Malaysia’s stock market has seen a slight recovery recently, the benchmark FBM KLCI is still far below its peak closing of 1,892.65 points two years ago.
At yesterday’s close of 1,690.92 points, the composite index was trading at a projected 16.23 times earnings for calender year 2016, and 15.01 times earnings for 2017, Bloomberg data showed. This compared with 2015’s price-earnings ratio of 17.8 times.Mobius also said that over the past two decades, the
MSCI Emerging Markets Index tended to have a bear market that ran for an average of 14 months, versus bull markets that lasted for 69 months. The losses during the routs averaged at 57%, which paled in comparison to average gains of 358%. Malaysia makes up one of the 21 emerging markets in the index, which also includes Brazil, Chile, China, Turkey, and Thailand.
Noting that emerging markets’ stocks can offer attractive yields of between 4% and 6%, Mobius said this presents opportunities for funds to return to this side of the world as developed markets introduce more stimulus measures by postponing interest rate hikes or cutting them to below zero altogether.
“We see that the US markets have peaked. So they are either going sideways or down, which will be good for emerging markets because a lot of money came out from there and went to the US [over the past three years] because of expectations that stock prices will go up and its currency was strengthening on higher interest rates.
“Now that the Fed (US Federal Reserve) has hesitated in recent weeks with the idea of raising rates, money exits in search of better opportunities,” Mobius said.
He also seemed excited by the oil rout, saying “there are opportunities resulting from commodity prices’ declines”. Although he is of the view that crude oil prices have bottomed out, Mobius said there are still many opportunities from the consolidation of the industry.
According to him, he recently had a discussion with a vessel supplier for oil and gas-related companies, which is still generating strong cash flows, although its income statement showed losses because it had to incur depreciation of its asset values according to current market prices.
“When commodity prices pick up over the next two to three years, this company will do very well. When the industry consolidates, there will be less competitors. So the company’s market position will be stronger,” he said.
美股見頂 新興市場再現魅力
麥莫比還預測美國股市已經見頂，未來投資趨勢將重新轉向過去3年落後大市的新興市場，包括馬股在內的區域股市有望重新爆發。
麥莫比說，以美元計算，馬股去年慘跌約20%，主要是受馬幣重貶近19%所累。在經濟展望仍強，及馬幣低28%的支持下，深跌後的馬股顯得非常誘人。
“這是我們繼續持樂觀看法，以及持續買進馬股的主要原因；雖然馬幣是今年至今表現最好的區域貨幣之一，卻仍被嚴重低估。”
截至今日下午5時，馬幣兌美元報4.1320令吉。
也是鄧普頓新興市場集團（Templeton）執行主席的麥莫比，在出席證券監督委員會（SC）主辦的2016年全球新興市場研討會（GEMP）時表示，大馬經濟成長情況保持良好，外匯儲備雖有減少，卻仍保持在健康水平。
“外貿盈餘也相對出色；實際上，沒有多少國家具備如大馬般的外貿盈餘。”
麥莫比解釋，歐州和日本等先進國如今都已採用負利率來刺激經濟，但這也變相鼓勵投資資金流向新興市場，尋找高回酬機會，加上新興市場資產過去3年表現落後大市，投資條件更有魅力，種種因素都顯示資金很可能回流新興市場。
“試想，若你把錢存進銀行不但無息可收，還得付費給銀行，那就自然會另尋能提供高回酬的地方，條件優渥的新興市場就是這趨勢下的贏家，因無論在週息率、資產估值或資本升值空間方面，新興市場都遙遙領先。”
同時，麥莫比也不看好美國升息將吸引游資重返先進國的看法，直言聯儲局（FED）雖在去年杪正式升息，近來卻似乎對繼續升息有猶豫，甚至可能放棄在今年升息。
他預測，美國股市已經見頂，未來可能陷入鞏固狀態，甚至出現回調。
奧列治：財赤不超5%
可接受
另一方面，赴會的世界銀行東南亞區董事奧列治則指出，一般上，只要大馬財政赤字不高於5%，都是可被接受的水平，但若能進一步降低赤字則更好，因這有助深化政府運用財政振興措施的空間。
奧列治還說，家債偏高可能影響市場消費，尤其當政治或經濟情況讓消費者感到不舒適時。
“不過，國民的有形資產擁有率偏高是大馬的強處，對中期經濟成長有利。”
熊市近尾聲
麥莫比稱，新興市場目前正處於過去28年來的第四次熊市，但就過往資料來看，熊市平均壽命只有14個月，暗示自2014年8月持續至今、已耗時16個月的新興市場熊市，可能已來到尾聲。
熊市平均壽命14個月
以MSCI新興市場指數作準，新興市場過去28年裡只曾出現4次跌幅超過30%的熊市；第一次發生在1998年（跌55%，耗時13個月），第二次則在2001年（跌40%，耗時17個月），接著是2008年（跌65%，耗時12個月），然後是目前仍持續中的第四次熊市。
MSCI新興市場指數自2014年8月以來已累積38%跌幅。
“過往資料顯示，牛市的時間明顯比熊市更長，漲幅也更兇，這是我們為何選擇把新興股市過去3年的拋售現象視作進場機會。”
油價需數年復甦另外，麥莫比也認為油價近年因供過於求而一度暴跌超過70%是不合理現象，看好油價在未來幾年裡逐漸復甦。
他解釋，過往資料顯示石油供求之間向來存有差距，但落差不會超過5%，最新數據顯示石油供應雖高於需求，但落差也仍保持在正常範圍內，因此推算油價暴跌主要是由市場情緒觸發，而且會在未來正常化。
We see the value for long term investing, do you?
以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。
From：林友志 （Lim Yu Chee)
