Monday, April 23, 2018

The largest technology company in Russia call Yandex

Russia also officially known as the Russian Federation, is a sovereign country in Eurasia. At 17,125,200 square kilometres (6,612,100 sq mi), Russia is the largest country in the world by area, covering more than one-eighth of the Earth's inhabited land area, and the ninth most populous, with over 144 million people at the end of December 2017. About 77% of the population live in the western, European part of the country. Russia's capital Moscow is one of the largest cities in the world; other major urban centers include Saint Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg and Nizhny Novgorod. (Information from wikipedia)

Yandex N.V. is a multinational corporation specializing in Internet-related services and products. Although most of its assets are in Russia, the company is incorporated in the Netherlands due to irregularities in Russian law. It is the largest technology company in Russia and the largest search engine on the Internet in Russian, with a market share of over 52%. The Yandex.ru home page is the 4th most popular website in Russia. It also has the largest market share of any search engine in the Commonwealth of Independent States and is the 5th largest search engine worldwide after Google, Baidu, Bing, and Yahoo!. (Information from wikipedia)




Yandex (YNDX) listed at Nasdaq with market cap US$11 billion. Below is the chart for Yandex shares price from 2017.


Yandex doesn’t just operate in the search engine space. The company has an email service and a cloud storage product. It has also launched a voice-enabled digital assistant called Alice. Yandex also has a ride-hailing and food delivery business. And in March, it formed a joint venture with Uber (valued at more than US$3.8 billion) to combine their ride-hailing and food delivery businesses in Russia. 

Yandex has also developed a self-driving car (which it’s already testing in Russia). It also recently signed a deal with Russian state-run bank Sberbank to create a joint e-commerce venture. And it has introduced a new feature for online shopping in around 76,000 global stores and services that give customers the option of paying for purchases in installments. (Information from Stansberrychurchhouse)

FY 2017 Financial Highlights
  • Revenues of RUB 94.1 billion ($1,632.9 million), up 24% compared with FY 2016
  • Net income of RUB 8.7 billion ($150.3 million), up 28% compared with FY 2016; net income margin of 9.2%
  • Adjusted net income of RUB 15.4 billion ($266.6 million), up 9% compared with FY 2016; adjusted net income margin of 16.3%
  • Adjusted EBITDA of RUB 29.1 billion ($504.8 million), up 11% compared with FY 2016; adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.9%

Q4 2017 Operational and Corporate Highlights
  • Share of Russian search market, including mobile, averaged 56.5% in Q4 2017, compared with 54.9% in Q3 2017, and reached 56.7% in December 2017, according to Yandex.Radar
  • Search share on Android in Russia was 45.0% in Q4 2017, compared with 41.2% in Q3 2017 and 37.0% in Q4 2016
  • Search queries in Russia grew 9% compared with Q4 2016
  • Paid clicks on Yandex's and its partners' websites, in aggregate, increased 10% compared with Q4 2016
  • Average cost per click grew 9% compared with Q4 2016
  • Yandex.Taxi number of rides grew 250% year-on-year compared with Q4 2016
  • Yandex launched Alice - the first conversational intelligent assistant designed for the Russian market
  • The Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Russian Federation approved the combination of Yandex.Taxi and Uber ride-sharing businesses
  • Yandex and Sberbank signed a binding agreement to form a joint venture based on the Yandex.Market platform

Q4 2017 Subsequent Events
  • Yandex created Media Services (KinoPoisk, Yandex.Music, Yandex.Afisha and Yandex.TV program) business unit
  • On February 7, 2018, Yandex completed the transaction between Yandex.Taxi and Uber in Russia and neighbouring countries

(Information from 4th Quarter financial results)


以上纯属个人分析与评论,如有任何疑问,欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。
From:林友志 (Lim Yu Chee)

Sunday, April 15, 2018

光大证券 石油美元 - 国际资本市场上的巨大力量

布雷顿森林体系瓦解后,美国和当时最大的石油出口国沙特阿拉伯签订了石油交易协议,规定石油以美元标价,美国则以其他方式协助沙特。这使得美元开始成了大部分石油交易的货币,美元在国际货币体系中的地位得以维护。由于石油是任何一个国家现代经济发展必不可少的能源和基础化工资源,石油进口国为了获取石油,必须先兑换美元,持有美元储备,于是美国就以控制着石油交易的方式巩固着美元在国际货币体系中的地位,石油美元也通过其他投资模式进入到全球金融市场,并回流到美国,成为国际资本市场上一股巨大的力量。
石油欧元——受制于美国霸权主义
就原油消费量以及全球政治与经济影响力来讲,欧元是最有能力取代美元作为石油计价货币的。然而,由于欧元和美元在国际货币市场上的竞争十分激烈,一旦市场上出现以欧元计价体系出现的举动时,美国往往利用各种手段和形式从中阻挠,以维护美元全球货币中心地位。因此,在美国利用自己强大的经济和军事实力,牢牢控制着 OPEC 和国际石油体系的大环境下,石油欧元对于石油美元的挑战短期内难以实现。
石油卢布——原油依赖型经济带来的石油-卢布困境
俄罗斯是全球最重要的原油生产国与出口国之一,卢布已具备成为石油计价货币的基本条件。然而,由于俄罗斯经济发展以及对外贸易过于依赖原油这一大宗商品,卢布的汇率和原油价格呈明显的一致性,这使得卢布稳定值大大降低,不利于投资和生产。一旦原油价格大跌,俄罗斯的经济将会迅速恶化,形成石油-卢布困境。
石油人民币——原油期货助力,打造三方“互惠循环”
2018 年 3 月 26 日,中国原油期货(INE)正式在上海能源中心挂牌上市,意味着国际原油市场开始有了中国原油价格基准,同时也代表我国石油人民币计价体系的正式建立。INE 合约有两个特别的安排:以中质含硫原油作为交割标的;期货合约以人民币计价,可转换成黄金。此举能直接避免 INE 与 WTI、Brent 的竞争,从而防范美国制裁;同时消除了人民国际化程度不足的风险,对原油出口国产生巨大吸引力。
若人民币在石油贸易计价体系上取得突破,将在以下几个方面带来有利条件:1)提高我国在原油贸易市场上的话语权,减少“亚洲溢价”,降低国际油价波动对我国石油行业、企业造成的冲击。2)助推人民币国际化进程。根据美元的经验,石油现货贸易采取人民币计价有助于维系本币在国际市场的使用价值和储备价值,两者互助互利、相互支撑。3)以“一带一路”沿线经济发展的内生需求为动力,以人民币的货币信用为支撑,打造中国、沿线经济体和石油出口国的三方互惠循环。
风险分析:中国经济转型、美国经济复苏带来中国原油市场影响力降低风险;美元走强,人民币国际化进程不及预期带来石油人民币推广风险。