Monday, May 8, 2017

迟来的五月回顾

1. WTI - Demand and supply theory kick in, the world still have huge supply compare to demand therefore price going to stay weak unless OPEC agree to maintain cutting the production again. If crude oil price continue stay weak most probably recently well strengthen RM will slow down a bit. However low crude oil price is good for aerospace industry, logistic industry and manufacturing industry ( if the company need use lot crude oil for production).

油价持续看低主要原因是产量高过需求,除非OPEC愿意继续减低生产量, 不然油价还是会持续保持在USD44 - USD54。 低油价会让最近不断变强的马币稍微减缓一点,但是对航空业和运输业是好消息, 对制造业也会是好事如果需要大量利用到石油来分解的话。


2. USD vs RM
Ringgit is Asia's best performing currency so far this year. Few reason support strong RM, export better than expectation, foreigner buy into Malaysia due to cheap in value, election coming soon, commodities start performing better in the 1st quarter of 2017.

马币是今年亚洲表现最好的货币基于一下几个原因,出口大幅提升,外资买进马来西亚,大选年,以及商品的价钱于第一季度有回弹。可惜的是油价和油棕价开始下跌,虽然出口开始大幅回升但是这一波升势开始放缓。今年最好的预测是马币对美金能够达到3.8 - 4.0

3. FKLI start rebound from January 2017 until now and the momentum is still maintaining, unless DJIA start crash or do big adjustment if not market is going to keep on sustain.

市场从年头开始起到现在,除非美国开始大跌或大幅回调要不然这股升势将持续保留。

4. STI, HSI, DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P500 most index is at their recent peak therefore any big single bad news will easily bring big adjustment to current market.

新加坡海峡指数,香港恒生指数,美国道琼斯工商指数, 美好纳斯达克指数,S&P500 都在最近的最高点其实还蛮担心的。





5. If crisis happen also an opportunity to buy for current market due to world economy start rebound and foresee will perform better in 2017. Another reason the economy might perform better is new leadership will come into picture in 2017 because 2017 is election year for lot countries. 

Due to current market is still very bullish therefore there will be a lot of trading opportunity and risk as well. Do take care closely on your position, high speculation come with high risk and lot counters are in high valuation now.

危机也是机会,如果股市大幅回调的话是买进的好机会。这是因为全球经济的成长预计会提高再加上许多国家在完成大选过后需要把重心开始放回国家经济的成长上。

现在的股市交易还是很热络,所以买卖的机会很多但是我们还是要提醒大家小心谨慎,如果你买的是投机股千万要小心。

以上纯属个人分析与评论,如有任何疑问,欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。
From:林友志 (Lim Yu Chee)

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